Hi guys!
I think he has a set like a 100% of the times, he's not raising Kx, and i pretty much block all the possible flush draws he could have, he cannot have AQ, JT KJ, and he's not cold calling much so the only FD he could have is T9 maybe.
Given his flop size he's giving me ~28% pot odds, against sets my equity is 25% which i wont really get to realize that much because he's gonna bet the turn 100% of the times unless a diamond hits. On the other hand i think i have some implied odds because when i hit my flush im gonna be able to extract at least 1 more street of value.
I dont really like shoving the flop, its probably not good at all, im not sure though if calling the flop and folding the turn is good either.
Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $14.73 (58.9 bb)
BB: $25.51 (102 bb)
UTG+1: $26.75 (107 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $25 (100 bb)
MP1: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $28.58 (114.3 bb)
CO: $10.15 (40.6 bb)
BTN: $25.40 (101.6 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J
A
UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) K
6 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, BTN raises to $4, Hero calls $2.80
Turn: ($9.85) 3
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $6.50, Hero folds
Results:
Spoiler
$9.85 pot ($0.44 rake)
Final Board: K 6 7 3
Hero mucked J A and lost (-$4.75 net)
BTN mucked and won $9.41 ($4.66 net)
