NL50 QTö Speed

The sample size for BTN call CUT?

5% seems too small to be believable? I'll give him a more realistic calling range of say 13%

After the flop goes through x/x, as hero I could still have all sets, which I suppose I'd have to x again.

So hero's turn lead, looks like a weak top pair or some kind of weak draw that you planned on x/r on the flop and now plan on double barreling.

I'd say hero probably has about 15 Qx combos here and perhaps the same amount of weak draws. And only 4 79s that are no longer strong enough to x/r.

On the river
BTN raising range could be

66 3 combos
88 3 combos
T8s 1 combo
~7 nut flush combos

Does he realize you are capped here and that he can raise nut flushes for value?

What bluffs can he have?

I don't think realistically he'd turn a weak T into a bluff.
AhTs 1 combo
He has a few gutshots that missed that could bluff, to make up enough bluff combos he'd have to be bluffing a lot of these, I don't think very many guys at all would be bluffing these enough here.

So river looks like a fold to me. If you want to call, hero should have a few A high flush draws, or some 6x, 8x that block sets. QTo seems way down the list of bluff catchers.

Hey Fidel22,

Preflop open raise is fine.

I'm not a fan of checking flop on this texture, I prefer a cbet. We don't really want to be giving free cards with a vulnerable hand.

Turn + river value-bets are fine. I would consider calling river here. Purely because villain is betting all sets on the flop imo, all Tx, and it's actually rare also for a lot of guys at these limits to check back flush draws. So villain no repping much of a value-range on river. @jules97 you think it's reasonable to discount sets + flush-draws + T8 because they would bet the flop?

@jules97 you think it's reasonable to discount sets + flush-draws + T8 because they would bet the flop?

Yeah, I'm not sure what i was smoking. I must have got the positions wrong. I think it's reasonable to assume he's going to bet sets on the flop. T8? Probably too.
I think he can still have some flushes come the river. I could see

Jh9h, 9h7h, kh9h, KhJh betting the flop.

But I think 7h8h, 8h9h, Ah8h would for sure call the flop.

I guess it's likely not many guys have all the suited aces in their cold call range preflop. But let's at least give him 1 that he calls the flop with.

That'd leave 4 value combos that are raising the river.

But yeah, 78s, A8s might not even be his preflop calling range. 7h8h might not raise the river either. Looks like calling the river here is the way to go with all of Tx. Even considering this guy looks a bit passive.

I hope that looks more reasonable.

Did he have Ah8h?

I'm not convinced we need all Tx - but I would call the better ones.

The situation is still not the greatest because not really sure how wide average guy will raise river even at 50nl so this just increases the likelihood he checked back something on the flop.

And yeah, certainly the case he may check back some 8x with flush-draws. Obviously if he never bluffs river we should be folding because it'll just be those few occasions he checks back a flush-draw on the flop and raises river for value.

So yeah, not super excited about river call or anything and still expect to be beat a decent amount.

Thank you guys!

Originally posted by jules97

Did he have Ah8h?

I wanted to call, but I timed out on the river.