River bluff

ambitious lol

I'd probs ch back turn don't see much reason to bet. Probably just going to pass him the pot tbh

Thinking reg probs call flush anyway cos your turn sizing is very meh trying to rep a actual hand.

yeah agree that turn sizing could be quite stronger, but on the other hand against his wide defending range on BB its not necessary to bet there over 60% of pot.

And obv. i know its ambitious but i still would say it can works. Since its spot where almost nobody bluffs, especially when he bets over 70% of pot on river

Hi,

Why should anyone fold their flushes if they got there.
Imo you´re overthinking players ability to fold flushes (especially on early stage) and it makes a lot of sense to me him lead river with boats, since you would always check back rover your overpairs (and maybe raise yourself with flushes).

Also he needs to be right 26,2%, if he is not bluffing then I would expect him to b/c all his value hands.

best regards,

i just assumed that villain who is playing with avg. buy in 85$ and already won 60k $ will be able to fold his flush in spot where people never bluff and they are only calling all the flushes and will jam just boats and nothing else.

And my play was based on assumption that he has no sets in his range, since i would expect to x/r it most of the time to get value from overpair and flush draws because villain is OOP and we are 70bb deep, so if he wants to get max value then x/c x/c lead with boats is deffinitely not most profitable option.

On the other hand this line perfectly fits to play flush like this and if I jam to his 80% lead on river i have in 95% boat so thats why he should fold all flushes because he still have 40bb behind and frequently he wont be good in this spot in 26% of time

Hi,

I think very few players would b/f there flushes, since they only need to be put in another 10k to win 28,8k. Also if he is wrong, then he is still left 6k, which is enough to continue playing. If he sees you as good player, he likely put more bluffs in your range than you usually have and consider his big turn bet I don´t think he is just trying to find fold too often on 100€ tourney.

best regards,

Originally posted by TheLazyGrinder
yeah agree that turn sizing could be quite stronger, but on the other hand against his wide defending range on BB its not necessary to bet there over 60% of pot.

I very highly doubt you bet the same sizing with a set ott.

Like kaitz says tho maybe he should fold flush here and you perhaps do but is dangerous to give villian same credit

OP : What was plan on blank river.

Hi all,

I'm +1 for a check back turn here, although I see the reasoning behind bet/bet/check line. As played: I agree it's optimistic to raise the river here but I really like it. I think that a winning reg folds easily often enough here once he's taken this line.

Originally posted by TheLazyGrinder
yeah agree that turn sizing could be quite stronger, but on the other hand against his wide defending range on BB its not necessary to bet there over 60% of pot.

And obv. i know its ambitious but i still would say it can works. Since its spot where almost nobody bluffs, especially when he bets over 70% of pot on river

The thing is that u dont rep that much and as others say u probably bet at least 2k with sets so without Kd or Ad in our hand I really dont like your line but I asume that works enough % of time for u to make. Profit cos imo solid player will have( fold) some better hands then 88 when he take that line like for ex Tx/ JJ/A9 some baby flushes ( the problem with flushes here is that u have 8d and 9d is on board so its not like he has many baby flushes combos ib his range imo)

If u bet like 2-2,4k on turn and then shove over his lead on river I like it more vut as I said when we dont have blocker for his nuts range Kd Ad I dontvlike it that much,vu dont need to win evry pot

OK thank guys for reactions, and i agree with arguments for higher turn sizing to make such a move on river more realistic

@rebuz: you barrel ott?

Yea, I think most of the times I would barell there for free showdown and stuff, cos we r fairly deep over card hits on turn he might hero call a4\a5 or something and hero fold 9x and we get some value from draws and stuff cos we cant get much value on river imo, tbh I prefer to barel here with smth like ax overcards or gutshots etc 33-77 cos he can fold more hands that r beating us then with 88 cos 88 is kinda on top of our range imo