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50 deep overpair raised, equity shift?

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Krach-Bumm-Ente
Joined: 01.05.2006

iPoker - €0.50 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 597.46 BB (VPIP: 72.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 56)
Hero (BTN): 164.38 BB
SB: 139.9 BB (VPIP: 38.94, PFR: 25.21, 3Bet Preflop: 7.24, Hands: 367)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.08, PFR: 21.40, 3Bet Preflop: 16.26, Hands: 304)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.42, PFR: 13.90, 3Bet Preflop: 4.23, Hands: 303)
MP: 160.68 BB (VPIP: 22.42, PFR: 16.36, 3Bet Preflop: 3.08, Hands: 166)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ A♠ T♥ A♥

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, Hero raises to 13.5 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 10.5 BB, CO calls 10.5 BB

Flop: (42 BB, 3 players) J♣ 3♥ 2♣

MP checks, CO checks, Hero bets 30 BB, MP raises to 96 BB, fold, Hero calls 66 BB

Turn: (234 BB, 2 players) 4♦
MP checks, Hero bets 54.88 BB

My thoughts are that villains range on the flop should be quite strong, especially with the fish behind. Possibly JJ, J+FD+livecards, nfd and op+fd.
Given his range I'm doing okay against a decent chunk of it, so my plan was to call and jam good turns (everything besides clubs, fold these).
Is shifting here ok or would you fold flop?


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

yeah villain's range should be fairly strong here, but i really can't see myself just calling here. I think the plan of folding clubs is good tough. We are still behind a set when he jams the clubs, but do in fact get an equity shift vs the other parts of his range.

Vs an agressive opponent i'm probably never folding this flop with the backdoors we have. Question is if i would just jam or not. However, i think we can wait for a club like mentioned in this specific scenario. The problem is we might be making a bad fold when the turn is something like a Qc; especially if he was raising something like J3xx, so jamming might be simpler.

If you have a read villain is passive, i might sometimes find a flop fold, but very very rarely.

Regards,

Skod


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