NL25 KQs

Hi AceSteph

Preflop: looks fine but could be a 3-bet for value vs ppl that call a lot

Postflop: Stacking off there without even the NFD is a bit optimistic especially against someone that seems nitty.

You say c/c-ing doesn't look good but what's your reason?

You are ahead of certain pairs there but I doubt villain 3-bets a hand like 88 or a worse draw.

Originally posted by BogdanPS
You say c/c-ing doesn't look good but what's your reason?

If I don't hit and he barrels I have to fold. If he doesn't barrel, but has a weak pair, or ace high he'll chechbehind on the turn, and when no draw hits on the river, he'll call me. So I cannot make a better hand fold. A worse hand can make me fold on the turn.

Also if I hit it will be harder to get value. If I check he'll checkbehind most of his middle showdownvalue hands, so I might loose value on the turn. Or if I donk he'll usually fold to a river bet, so even if I hit I'll get mostly one street of value.

So even if I hit or not, not too many good scenarios for me. What do you think about this reasoning?

I see where you are coming from but you don't always have to fold when he barrels, especially on cards where you'd expect people to continue betting on. There will always be cards that you need to fold, no doubt.

But since you are so worried of being made to fold by a worse hand doesn't that imply that if you hit (so FD gets there, or K or Q) then he will bluff those cards often? So now you get more value from bluffs?

Raising flop / stacking off is fine if you expect worse draws and PPs to stack off (let's say 88-99, etc). In that case you are ok on equity but still not doing super well. Or if you have the image/history/info where you can expect the opponent to actually 3-bet bluff.

Then it becomes really nice to shove because you are attacking all that money with a lot of hand equity but now also FE.

So I guess tossing it back to you, do you expect 3-bet bluffs? Do you expect draws like 98s to stack off or a hand like 99?