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nl200 worse hand you shove otr

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ciachooooo
Joined: 02.01.2010

he is 28/22 reg with 8% 3b
open 26% on CO, folds ip vs 52% 3b, calls 38%, 4b range 4%, but he folds 52% vs 5b so he flats premium decent % of time

fold vs cb in 3b pots 39/31/32
raise cb 8/17/29
bet IP vs missed cb 44/48/48
wtsd 30, wwsf 46

1) obv he can call call call with AT here, but what calling range otr do you find reasonable? how do you like mine? he can def have more premium, but I think my assumptions are ok (all JJ, but no QQ just for easier stove)


Stół: J♥Q♠2♠ 7♦ T♠
       Equity  Wygrana  Podział
MP2    60.00%   60.00%    0.00% { KhKc }
MP3    40.00%   40.00%    0.00% { JJ, AdAh, AdAs, AQs, KQs, QJs, AsKs, AsJs, KsJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AQo, KQo }


Stół: J♥Q♠2♠ 7♦ T♠
       Equity  Wygrana  Podział
MP2    46.48%   33.80%   12.68% { AQo }
MP3    53.52%   40.85%   12.68% { JJ, AdAh, AdAs, AQs, KQs, QJs, AsKs, AsJs, KsJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AQo, KQo }

2) weakest you shove here? AQ? KK?
3) if you don't shove, than it should be always x/f? what do you think is weakest hand he shoves for value when checked to him otr?

Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Graj rękę

$0/$2 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$119.33:///////;BB (Hero)$215.00:///////;MP2$200.00:///////;MP3$211.35:///////;CO$222.50:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is BB with K:h, K:c.
2 folds, CO raises to $5.00, BU folds, Hero raises to $18.00, CO calls $13.00.

Flop: ($36) J:h, Q:s, 2:s (2 players)
Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22.00.

Turn: ($80) 7:d (2 players)
Hero bets $48.00, CO calls $48.00.

River: ($176) T:s (2 players)
Hero ships for 127 more


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4 replies
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

I think he raises most of his 2pair+ combos
by the river, also his strong draws, but he most likely improves
Qts jts which you didnt write. Anyway on this runout
He most likely calls only worse hands KQ and
aq, it can be that he folds also that because river is the worse
Card


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

instead of guessing his calling range on the River, you could guess his Turn range and see how far ahead KK is vs all his bluffcatchers+.

If you have nuts, optimal size = infinity
80% pot = 3/5 pot

I don't remember the exact formulas but I think you can try looking into MOP for the optimal bet size formula and try to adjust it for NLHE.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Is there some kind of equation or algorithm
Which on flop for given effective stack
Sizes and pot size outputs the optimal
Bet sizes for each street so that we dont
Overbet any street if possible. By optimal
Bet sizes i mean that bet_size/pot ratio
Should be as close as possible on each
Street.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008
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