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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

They look pretty capped here on the turn right?

I thought my hand was too weak to bet given my outs of were even worse now. But if I overbet I thought I can clean them up a little? Folding out some Jx hands.

I had planned to jam all rivers but a J... :f_cool:

PokerStars - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 165.5 BB
SB: 457.1 BB
Hero (BB): 151.8 BB
UTG: 175.3 BB
MP: 98.8 BB
CO: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♣ 5♦

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (7.5 BB, 3 players) 7♣ 8♠ T♥
SB checks, Hero bets 4.5 BB, BTN calls 4.5 BB, SB calls 4.5 BB

Turn: (21 BB, 3 players) Q♥
SB checks, Hero bets 31 BB, fold, fold

Spoiler

Hero wins 20.1 BB


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6 replies
ETBrooD
Joined: 16.09.2009

Love your idea and the play. Betsize seems good.

If you get called on the turn, villain is mostly repping drawish hands, quite possibly sets, and 2P that isn't willing to fold right away.
I'm very interested in hearing opinions before saying mine, because my mind is all over the place right now.


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Hey,

Your line seems reasonable. Without doing further analysis, I can't say if this turn size is better for this hand than smaller size followed with a bigger river size. I tend to think that smaller turn bet combined with a bigger river bet should work as well as this but I could be wrong on that.

Jamming all river but a J doesn't seem like the best plan for this hand. F.e. jamming on a 9 river would be very bad. Also dislike jamming on hearts with this combo.


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ETBrooD
Joined: 16.09.2009

Alright, lets look at this again.
If I'm not mistaken you need 58% FE on the river.

I think you can bet non-heart A, K, Q, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and Kh = 23 cards, right? So you can safely bet 50% of the time and then you have 3 nines which arrive 6% of the time, you should be able to bluffcatch them profitably. I'm hoping it's not negative implieds, but we can't be certain. This is quite an issue - we don't know exactly how many STRDR villain will call on the turn. More about that in my conclusions.
The reason I'm including Kh is that it takes out quite a few of the strong draws that villain could call with on the turn, so while it helps villains range it also hurts it quite a bit.

For some reason T, 8, 7 don't appeal to me. They should be in villains turn call range a lot of the time, am I right? If that is so, then I don't like the play so much.

Another problem is that villain might just have a strong set and put you on a similar hand, so I'm not even sure if he's gonna fold all that often on the river. It would actually be a pretty tough laydown even though you look very strong. There's no reason for anyone to assume you're bluffing too often - but that's just not how worse players think, therefore we shouldn't dismiss the possibility.

All in all I prefer a 3/4 bet followed by an overbet. In that case I would definitely not bet T, 8, 7, having allowed villain to call a much wider drawing range.
I'd make the overbet 2,5x
You'll definitely have to balance this with value bets. So in fact I would not choose this hand to bluff with. I prefer T9, 98, 97 without hearts.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

I just dont like small bet on flop then overbet on turn, which tells that you hit turn nuts, but what combos? So it looks bluffy to me. Also if your opponents are cappt, would you really overbet value? I think bet big turn and bet big river does good also vs cappt range.


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tatartom
Joined: 03.11.2010

Hey, what do you say about foldin shitty hand preflop especially to this sizing and against 2 unknowns?
Is it really that good to defend more when buton opened and SB called and less when SB didnt call (I assume you wouldnt call this against buton alone?)?


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

I kinda neglected the preflop play, which probably is a bit too loose. Even facing a minraise this would be marginal imo.

On mobile atm, so not sure if I missed some questions.


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