flop turn question

yea the T hits him a bit more than you. however, i don't really fancy a c/c ott. your hand is kind of face up from this point on and i doubt you get a ton of value otr. the play might be okay if you c/c a wide range of draws here and on an offsuit 7 river could be leading with a straight (and therefore bluff a ton), but this is more fishing for arguments than actual reality i guess. also, when you bluff a card like a 7 he might as well just have gotten there.
so i think i'd prefer betting the turn by far, he shouldn't be jamming really loose there as your range is still strong and you have KK, KQJ, AAspades etc. in your range.

in my mind the T hits his calling range so i decide to c/c

I think so too. However, i don't see anything wrong in betting either. When you c-bet in mw-pot an keep it coming on turn, unless he was slowplaying KKxx/(88xx) very often this kind of nitty guys just don't see any other option but call.

As played i think betting otr is somewhat standard, but actually this is one of those rivers when i could consider check-raising for balancing (or whatever excuse you wanna use). ♦

1) I really don't belive that there are too many 8xxx he would call flop. I mean, imo he's just too nitty to do that especially when the SB is still to act.

2) When you cBet mw, you got to have at least ~good Kxxx+ so he really need to think is his outs still alive (and SB still to act).

3) Otr only r-r flush gets there. River doesn't complete any straight and his two pair+ are still better than almost any made hand you would've only check-call turn.

4) Imo his range seems quite strong (K8xx/KTxx+) so he could very easily go for a valuebet on the river.

Of course if you know that he don't bet anything thinner than nuts, then bet 100/100.

EDIT: When Hero raises UTG and c-bets flop mw, imo his range is good Kxxx+ so i would expect him to bet the turn also if T helps him a lot giving him like a FD and/or two pair + straight draw. Imo c-c turn looks more like top pair + some straigth draw obviously with outs to the bigger 2pairs. Or that AAxx with FD.

Hi,

easy turn c/r in this spot if you can get away with it. Sure the T hits his range, but you've picked up the fd + gutter to go along with your overpair. Unless he has a set, you are doing just fine with only the tiny bit of FE you might have, + there are now some draws he can have that you are ahead of or have completly crushed (turned weaker fd's, turned sd + pair etc...)

C/c with this SPR is way to akward.

Regards,

Skod

i like the c/r line ty

yes i like c/r also, i'm just unsure about these nits. in my experience they bet almost exclusively with strong made hands and i'd fear he checks back most weaker hands (he has a tight utg range himself so he will perceive ours as tight also, so i'm not sure if he bets hands which can not beat AK/AA). against somewhat aggressive regs i think c/r is best, against nits probably also but i believe they also check back a lot there

We have like 40% vs KTxx here, so we almost don't need any FE to make a profitable c/jam in this spot. And KT is pretty much the top of his range here, as at this level people still usually just raise sets on this flop.

Regards,

Skod

Originally posted by Krach-Bumm-Ente
..and i'd fear he checks back most weaker hands (he has a tight utg range himself so he will perceive ours as tight also, so i'm not sure if he bets hands which can not beat AK/AA). against somewhat aggressive regs i think c/r is best, against nits probably also but i believe they also check back a lot there

i agrree that he could ch back here but do we have to fear about this? dunno. if he checks back we can ev river if we c/c or b/f or b/c