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NL10, KTo on AJQ

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Hi,

I have two problems with this hand, on the flop and on the river. So far Villain seems to be a good player, his stats are:
Hands:60 VPIP:28/PFR:24

IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10 (100 bb) Hands:60 VPIP:28/PFR:24
Hero (BB): $10.66 (106.6 bb)
UTG: $14.12 (141.2 bb)
MP: $3.24 (32.4 bb)
CO: $10.25 (102.5 bb)
BTN: $10.10 (101 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K T
4 folds, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) Q A J (2 players)
SB bets $0.42, Hero calls $0.42

Turn: ($1.44) A (2 players)
SB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

River: ($3.64) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $4.20, Hero ?

(1) On the flop, could we raise?
I don't expect Villain to bet turn with a hand less good than Ax. I have the impression that by calling on the flop, we will just be able to value a few more hands that might check/call on the turn. However if the turn is a K or T it will become very difficult to get value from our hand. And if we raise on the flop, we maximize the value against hands such as AJ, AQ, QJ, AA, JJ, QQ, AK, AT.
Would it be a mistake to raise?
What is the best play?

(2) On the river, assuming that SB is a good player, could we fold?
Our hand is strong but I tend to think that most of NL10 players wouldn't overbet this river with less than a full house, what do you think about it?

(3) On the river, if we now consider that Villain overbets with full house, any Ax and sometime 9T, should we call or push?

Thank you! :)


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5 replies
cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Hi,

flop - yes of course we can raise, there are many pair plus draws that can call

turn - not so good for us now but i think we can still raise for value and fold to a shove

river - this is tricky hes betting it like he has a full house we are definitely not raising here, its either a call or fold. i think hes betting a fair number of Ax thats not full house this way so we probably have a call.

Thanks
Xavier Fok


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_Anonymous_ Topic starter
_Anonymous_

Hi Xavier,

Thank you for your reply.

So to maximize value, we should raise on the flop. Let's say we raise to $1.25 and that Villain calls.

On the turn, I would bet around $2 (is this amount correct?).
I would expect Villain to have 3bet on the flop a big part of his sets and probably also AQ-AJ . So if he raises on the turn, what should we do? Is it also a fold?

Finally, if Villain calls our bet on the turn, do we push on the river? Since he hasn't shown any strength so far, he probably doesn't often have a full house and we could try to value all Ax?


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

Hi,

Flop we can go bigger like 1.6 because any hand there calling a raise has some kind of a draw at least and is price insensitive.

Turn we go with 70-80% pot still because we are most likely still ahead. And if he raises it's still a fold because he's seldom raising here with worse than a full house.

And if he calls we should push the river for value. And yes you are right we are valuing Ax. Don't be surprised to see Qx too.

Thanks
Xavierfok


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_Anonymous_ Topic starter
_Anonymous_

Your explanations are very clear, thank you very much! :)


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cutegoldfish
Joined: 19.11.2009

You are welcome. Please remember to flag the thread to ask the judge for advice if you have further questions

_biggrin: _biggrin:

Thanks
Xavierfok


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