4b KKJTss

Hi,

4b is ok, IP you could easily call here as well, both plays are fine. After the 4b you have to fold. You have 35% vs AAxx, probably even less if he doesn't 3b every AA hand OOP.

Regards,

Skod

Are you sure it's a fold? Hero needs 38% to stack off, and he has 35%. So it's close. But as hero can just call and fold some flops, it might be at least close to +EV line. I am too lazy to do the math right now.

I think villains range is AAxx, unless we have some other info.

This bothered me so I calculated it:

If we assume that villain has range of AAxx and he will never fold (which are both true imo), and hero calls all the flops where he has at least 14% equity.

Hero has around 30bb left otf, so he needs 14% equity to call villain's shove. This happens 75% of the times and when it happens hero has average equity of 43%.

So 25% of the times hero folds otf and loses 54bb (for calling that 4bet)
75% of the times hero calls shove and has avg equity of 43% which is 96bb from the pot of 222,6bb. Hero has invested 54bb+30bb so EV is +12bb.

(-54x0,25)+(12x0,75)= -4,5bb

If hero shoves preflop, his EV is -8,5bb

So even as hero could fold some flops while villain can't, it's not enough to make it +EV. I thought it would, as there is still 30bb left in hero's stack otf. I stand corrected.

sick did not suggest this. nice math kyyberi ty

Hi,

yeah i'm not a math geek like Kyyberi, but obviously once villain puts like 80% of his stack in pre you can't defend with these type of hands; even if hero folds some flops it's bad and - EV.

Regards,

Skod

If villain puts 100% of his stack in pre, it's a call. And if villain has more in his stack, at some point it becomes a call. If villain has 90bb stack here, it's borderline between a call or fold. If villain had 80bb stack it would have been an easy call.