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NL200 99 3b coldcall sb vs bb 134bb deep

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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

BU 24/16/BU steal 61%/foldto3bet 43%

Villain 22/17/3bet 5,8%/3bet sb vs bu 16%/af 1,3/afq 26,27,33/flop C/R 17%/cb 3b pot 47%/wtsd 36%/w$sd 52%/wwsf 48%/1,7k hand

Against this type of villain should I just bet/fold on the turn even if he does not represent too much?

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $750.28 (375.1 bb)
SB: $939.78 (469.9 bb)
Hero (BB): $267.31 (133.7 bb)
UTG: $336.30 (168.2 bb)
MP: $231.44 (115.7 bb)
CO: $303.93 (152 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 9
3 folds, BTN raises to $4, SB raises to $16, Hero calls $14, BTN folds

Flop: ($36) 5 2 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($36) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20.62, SB raises to $62, Hero calls $41.38

River: ($160) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $861.78 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$160 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 5 2 6 2 6
SB mucked and won $157.20 ($79.20 net)
Hero mucked 9 9 and lost (-$78 net)


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I wouldn't even call PF in the first place. It's just so hard to balance and I prefer to 4bet or fold this hand.

Your range is obviously capped here PF to mid pairs and I don't have a clear answer for you on the river so we have to do game theory analysis in this spot to prevent villain from having an extremely profitable bluffing spot here.

Much of his Turn bluff raising range would contain a single heart so let's say he has ~20% equity with those bluffs.

I'd imagine you bet the Flop w TT/JJ/A:hX:h so 99 seems to be at the top of your range in this spot which makes me more inclined to call the River.

Based on his stats: sample for many of the stats aren't so huge since you only have 1.7k hands on him. I'll trust the 22/17/5.8 stats more and such players probably don't bluff with this line very often so I'll make a fold.


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