QQ raise turn

Hey GingerKid,

Preflop call is fine here.

Flop call is fine, I think we can even consider value-raise on this texture. People open SC's and can hit this board sometimes + also can have worse overpairs in range still.

Turn raise is ok but thinner than flop-raise would be imo. Sizing of 21bb would be fine here imo.

River check back is fine on 4-to-straight card.

Originally posted by w34z3l
Hey GingerKid,

Preflop call is fine here.

Flop call is fine, I think we can even consider value-raise on this texture. People open SC's and can hit this board sometimes + also can have worse overpairs in range still.

Turn raise is ok but thinner than flop-raise would be imo. Sizing of 21bb would be fine here imo.

River check back is fine on 4-to-straight card.

why would you raise 21bb? It would give correct odds to his draws, so I dont get it. I would raise with nuts larger to protect, so I think so small raise size could be a tell.

Originally posted by GingerKid
why would you raise 21bb? It would give correct odds to his draws, so I dont get it. I would raise with nuts larger to protect, so I think so small raise size could be a tell.

I would use this sizing because value is thin given we are playing vs UTG opener and also just because it's standard turn raise size.

Hypothetical scenario for you ----> Would you prefer villain gets priced out and folds? Or would you prefer he gets priced in and calls?

Originally posted by w34z3l

Originally posted by GingerKid
why would you raise 21bb? It would give correct odds to his draws, so I dont get it. I would raise with nuts larger to protect, so I think so small raise size could be a tell.

I would use this sizing because value is thin given we are playing vs UTG opener and also just because it's standard turn raise size.

Hypothetical scenario for you ----> Would you prefer villain gets priced out and folds? Or would you prefer he gets priced in and calls?

I would like to give him such a price that for him is slightly -EV to call with draws. If i give him good prize then he is not making mistake. If he folds fd with20+% equity i am fine with that.

What if he 3bets turn? Easy fold because you expcet no bluffs or draws 3betting, but only monsters?

Originally posted by DarkAwi
What if he 3bets turn? Easy fold because you expcet no bluffs or draws 3betting, but only monsters?

If i think that he is value heavy with 3bet then i will make easy fold, and that case i would lose same amount or less compared to call turn call river.
If i would know he is bluff heavy i would call 3bet.
Vs unknown frequency as here i would assume he is value heavy regarding board and positions and would have no problem folding.

I usually vs many regs raise strong overpairs and TPTK (especially where i dont repp much) and often vs known agro regs play for stacks because i am aware that my raise flop % is higher than average due to merged value range.

Imo the main point here is if i have clear value in raise vs his defend range (QQ having > 55% vs his defend range), and not what to do if he reraises and tells me he has the nuts.
He should have around 20 draw combos (fd and oesd). Value there are 12 sets, 3 combo 78s which he defends for sure. If he makes nitty folds with all over pairs, which is what I think many regs will do, then I have value in raise. If he calls only KK+, then I don't (he could c/c turn with some overs), and if he defends all over pairs I have value. So it is not clear if I have value, thats why I conclude now that I shouldn't raise, but call.

Originally posted by w34z3l
Flop call is fine, I think we can even consider value-raise on this texture

I actually think now that there is even less value in flop raise than turn raise.
On flop we have only spade flush draw, and we block it, so only 7 fd combos, and 4 OESD. Those combos defend for sure, also sets, 2 pairs defend for sure, so
12 combos value, and 11 combos draws defend for sure (well maybe he doesn't open raise 22, but also he maybe doesn't open raise KsTs and similar).
Now depends how many over pairs he defends, but since he is more likely to fold some lower and defend KK+, or even check/call some of the lower over pairs (very likely), then there is really not much value in flop raise. Also what makes it bad on flop is that his draws have a lot more equity than on turn, AsXs, KsXs have around 40% vs our hand, then there are TsJs, Ts9s which are combo draws (so almost all of his draws are almost flip vs our hand).

I'd raise the turn a little bigger so sets up pot size shove on river if I did. The odds are the same for him anyway.

But the raise is too thin for me as a non exploitative line. I just don't have any hands to get the 30% of the bluffs needed to be raising this for value.

What is your turn raising range?

Originally posted by GingerKid
I would like to give him such a price that for him is slightly -EV to call with draws. If i give him good prize then he is not making mistake. If he folds fd with20+% equity i am fine with that.

I think this is a common misconception. We only want to price out villain if he will still call (in many cases). We still profit even if opponent has the odds to call with a worse hand.

Let's say we price out villain with draws. (And lets ignore for a moment the fact that he still has all sets in his range). We win 24bb 100% of the time.

Let's assume we raise 21bb and price villain in.
Yes we are now only entitled to about 73% of what's in the pot (0.73 * 24bb) 17.52bb but we also gain 73% of our 12bb value-raise (0.73 * 12) = 8.76, so our expectation when value betting can often be slightly higher even when opponent is priced in.

There is a bigger potential problem. If a lot of our value comes from draws, by pricing out all draws and getting folds we are actually isolating ourselves vs hands that beat us and our value-raise becomes non profitable. I.e villain still has sets and better hands in his range.

Originally posted by jules97
I'd raise the turn a little bigger so sets up pot size shove on river if I did. The odds are the same for him anyway.

But the raise is too thin for me as a non exploitative line. I just don't have any hands to get the 30% of the bluffs needed to be raising this for value.

What is your turn raising range?

I was thinking purely exploitative here, didn't care about being balanced vs unknown guy.

On flop I raise 22, 77, and on turn 78s, 88.

I would bluff turn TJs because we have 2 strong draws, and 2 gutshots, so we can repp anything on most river cards, and would also 89s because can't call turn +EV, but it blocks 8x, also 9Ts which defends, and also is ahead of his draws which defend for sure. So exactly I have 7 value, 7 bluffs, and on river I
can shove 7 value, and from that use 3 combos of TJs to bluff, and check 89s which wins sometimes.

I don't like raising hands like AsTs+, KsQs, because we have showdown value vs his draws, also dominate his draws, and we can bluff on river when our draw misses and other draw complete, so I think those combos are surely +EV to flat, and 89s and TJs is not +EV (except TsJs, TcJc, but I raise it to rep also flushes).

Off course we could also instead of 89s raise JsQs, KsQs, AsTs (less showdown value), but I am not sure if 89s is good for raisE?

Let's assume we raise 21bb and price villain in.
Yes we are now only entitled to about 73% of what's in the pot (0.73 * 24bb) 17.52bb but we also gain 73% of our 12bb value-raise (0.73 * 12) = 8.76, so our expectation when value betting can often be slightly higher even when opponent is priced in.

But, what when draw comes, he donks and I close my eyes and say, he has 100% nuts but I have to call with my set Just kidding (half true)

However, I think we can't simply discard his implied odds. Pot on river will be 36BB, so what do you do vs donk like 10BB? Ok, it will be 0.27 * 10BB, but still I think we can't totally ignore it.

Here, Internet wrote about very similar hand about raise size:
it 100NL cb flop,x/r line shove river

Important part:

When you raise turn, you should make a size that's close for him when he has KQ or a FD. So not too small. Your size is too small, he has an easy call with KQ and all FDs. You should go maybe to $40-$45, so his A2dd or QJcc or KQhh is in a tough spot.

So who is right here ?
I think what you said makes sense, but I am confused now.

There is a bigger potential problem. If a lot of our value comes from draws, by pricing out all draws and getting folds we are actually isolating ourselves vs hands that beat us and our value-raise becomes non profitable. I.e villain still has sets and better hands in his range.

Thats right. In that case from GTO perspective, he needs to defend less % of his range, which means that if he folds all draws QQ becomes weaker than all his defend hands. But, QQ is anyway too thin to raise here, what about sets? Raising larger with sets shouldn't isolate us vs stronger range, because he still has 78s, and over pairs which can call down.

Originally posted by GingerKid

Here, Internet wrote about very similar hand about raise size:
it 100NL cb flop,x/r line shove river

Important part:

When you raise turn, you should make a size that's close for him when he has KQ or a FD. So not too small. Your size is too small, he has an easy call with KQ and all FDs. You should go maybe to $40-$45, so his A2dd or QJcc or KQhh is in a tough spot.

So who is right here ?
I think what you said makes sense, but I am confused now.

Yeah, hopefully there should be no contradiction here.

The idea is that want to bet as large as possible while still getting paid off. For example if opponent would just call huge overbet shove regardless of the odds we would do that. We wouldn't waste time trying to make it as close to call for him as possible.

However in many cases unless there is already a huge amount of money in the pot we'd actually prefer to give villain exactly the pot odds he need and induce a call rather than slightly price him out and illicit a fold. But if we can price him out AND illicit a call this is the highest EV for us, so depends on opponent to an extent.

But yeah, one thing that people overlook - just because opponent gets the odds to call doesn't mean we aren't making money with our value-bet.