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+EV Fold?

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forceofwill1
Joined: 18.05.2013

Hey guys,

should i have called? I'm not sure if my fold was profitabel..

Poker Stars, $6.37 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools .

SB: 1,940 (97 bb)
BB: 1,470 (73.5 bb)
UTG+1: 1,470 (73.5 bb)
UTG+2: 1,965 (98.3 bb)
MP1: 1,140 (57 bb)
Hero (MP2): 1,470 (73.5 bb)
MP3: 1,195 (59.8 bb)
CO: 1,380 (69 bb)
BTN: 1,470 (73.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K Q
2 folds, MP1 calls 20, Hero raises to 60, 3 folds, SB calls 50, BB folds, MP1 raises to 100, Hero calls 40, SB calls 40

Flop: (320) 5 2 6 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (320) 7 (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets 320, 2 folds

Results: 320 pot
Final Board: 5 2 6 7
SB mucked and lost (-100 net)
MP1 mucked and won 320 (220 net)
Hero mucked K Q and lost (-100 net)

Im not sure how to calculate correctly EV out of this.

Thanks for your reply


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1 reply
mylove190207
Joined: 10.04.2011

Hi forceofwill1,

To get EV out of that situation, you have to put opponent on range. Then calculate how much you get when you call and win and how much you loose with folding. But I am not sure if you can do this here, because there is another street to came and you will be facing another decision on river.

I would recomend you to raise more BF (3*bb+1bb/limper, 80 in your case). Opponent limp/raise is weard (he is probably bad player maybe also loose) and with that big stack I will also call his 3bet. I put him on that range: TT+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo. SB probably have something like that: 99-22, AQs-A5s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo-A5o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

On flop I like your check back. You have only 2 over cards and backdoor FD and you are against 2 opponents.

On turn I will consinder to call that raise. Against range that I mentioned before you have 33,72% equity. SB checks 2nd time, so he probably don`t have something strong or he have nuts. So I will call when MP1 raise and give up on river if SB also calls, unless I hit flush. If SB check/raise, just fold. MP1 can bet so big because he is afraid of another FD on board or he have totaly air and wanna bluf you away. So I will call here.

On river I will raise if I get flush. If K or Q came and is not in :spade: I will go for check back or call. But I will fold (with TP) if opponent bets all-in or near the pot.

GL at tables!


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