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NL100 88 overpair

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cleoclaudiu
Joined: 13.04.2010

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $106.64 (106.6 bb)
MP: $167.99 (168 bb)
CO: $228.73 (228.7 bb)
Hero (BTN): $103.04 (103 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 8
MP raises to $3, CO calls $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($10.50) 4 7 5 (3 players)
MP bets $6.38, CO calls $6.38, Hero?

This is a SH hand on a FR table, so the stats ar for SH. First villain is a reg, 29/23 on 2k hands. 54% cbet, and 36%(22) cbet vs 2.

2nd playerd 21/13 on 400 hands.

What to do here? raise/fold? call? fold?


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5 replies
Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Hey,

The method i would use to determine my play here is option elimination.

folding: we have decent equity vs anything and can quite easily have the best hand. Folding is out of question for me.

calling: our hand looks very weak if we call and is very vulnerable. Also, there aren't many runouts where I would feel comfortable calling down on. Hence, calling is out of question.

that leaves us with raising: you have a gutshot and two set outs, you have showdown value and fold equity. For those reasons, i think this makes a good candidate for bluff raising the flop with the plan of occasionally getting to showdown by calling one more bet.


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cleoclaudiu
Joined: 13.04.2010

Originally posted by Shevtshenko
Hey,

The method i would use to determine my play here is option elimination.

folding: we have decent equity vs anything and can quite easily have the best hand. Folding is out of question for me.

calling: our hand looks very weak if we call and is very vulnerable. Also, there aren't many runouts where I would feel comfortable calling down on. Hence, calling is out of question.

that leaves us with raising: you have a gutshot and two set outs, you have showdown value and fold equity. For those reasons, i think this makes a good candidate for bluff raising the flop with the plan of occasionally getting to showdown by calling one more bet.

Yeah, it's what I did, and the 2nd playerd reraised me, wich was kind of weird, but I said to myself that I bluffraised in the firs place and let the hand go.

About the raising on this board vs 2 ppl, what hands do I expect the first oponent to bet/fold?


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Start by writing down the combos that he cbets with and then take a look at which of those combos fold against your line. You're a smart guy, you don't need or want me to spoon feed this to you. It's better if you do it yourself, that way you can also figure out if the bluff raise is showing a profit or not.


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Shevtshenko
Joined: 06.12.2009

Just to expand a little. He can fold some very strong hands or he can fold barely any hands. Both of which i'm fine with this hand actually :)


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cleoclaudiu
Joined: 13.04.2010

Well, I asked because given his small cbet and board texture I don't think he is betting alot here, thus when he bets I expect him to have overpairs and some sort of combo draws, and dont think he is foldind much.

I've put this in Equilab and given an open range of about 25%, I may have about 50% FE on this board, much more the I thought.


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