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NL100, PF SB TT, post flop decisions vs LAG

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alphamonkey
Joined: 27.12.2013

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Hero (SB): $102.50 (102.5 bb)
BB: $155.44 (155.4 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $90.74 (90.7 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T♣ T♦
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6) 5♦ J♦ 3♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

Turn: ($14) 9♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($28) 2♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $22.15, Hero ???

Villain 31/24 (without notes or dinamics)

Fold BB vs SB steal 54%
3bet BB sv SB steal 13%
Fold to cbet IP 43%
raise cbet 13%
WTSD 26%
WWSF 48%
Bet vs missed cb 50%

it is ok this line? River call/fold ???

thanks !


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4 replies
mysteryman21
Joined: 18.09.2010

T blocker not the best
Feels close we could give him bluffs and it will become pot oods call. I'd fold the first time


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Hi there Alpha, welcome to the english hand evaluation forum ;)

Flop I think our hand belongs to our x/c flop range. If you think about it it makes more sense to cbet a hand like 77 than TT, since 77 needs more folds from Villain's folding range (hands like K9, QT, etc). Cbet with TT is okay of course, it's not like it's a huge mistake.

As played turn seems standard.

River is a bluffcatch situation, always an unpleasant one. We just have to figure out, on one hand how many bluff combos villain has to have for us to bluffcatch and then try to look at our own range and try to figure out what are our best bluffcacthers.

Villain has 32 combos of value: 9h9s, 9h9c, 9s9c, 5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c, Jh9h, Js9s, Jc9c, Ad8d, Kd8d, Qd8d, Ad7d, Kd7d, Qd7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, Kd6d, Qd6d, 7d6d, Ad4d, Kd4d, Ad3d, Kd3d, Ad2d, Kd2d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9h, Jc9s

So we have pot odds of: 22.15/(22.15+22.15+28) = 30.6%

Value combos: 32
Bluff combos needed to break even:

32: 69.4 = b : 30.6

b = ~14 bluff combos.

I think 14 bluff combos seems a bit high, so villain would have to be floating flop quite wide which I'm not sure he is, since he shouldn't even have any hand that has 2 overcards. So he would have to show up with hands like Kd8x, Qc8c, stuff like that.

So it doesn't seem like we should be bluffcatching much. As for our bluffcatchers, we should call with any Ad, like Ad3x, Ad5x, we could play like this hands like AdKx and AdQx. I suppose we don't have many Qd or Kd in our range, so TdTx could be quite high in our range, so calling is definitely not terrible.

EDIT: Actually we might have hands like KdJx, QdJx, JxTd, even AdJx. So yeah, maybe fold TdTx.


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alphamonkey
Joined: 27.12.2013

very good analysis !!! Thanks !!!

Parabens pelo teu estatuto e pelos teus resultados !!! Grande double !!! ;)

I think villain may have more than 14bluff combos because our range seems weak in eyes of our opponent.

Also, he may have many combos as A4,A2,65s,QT,KT,AT ...

Also, you not mention about 64s, more 4 value combos ...

For sure is a close decision, may be ...

Forca ! :)


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Originally posted by alphamonkey
very good analysis !!! Thanks !!!

Parabens pelo teu estatuto e pelos teus resultados !!! Grande double !!! ;)

I think villain may have more than 14bluff combos because our range seems weak in eyes of our opponent.

Also, he may have many combos as A4,A2,65s,QT,KT,AT ...

Also, you not mention about 64s, more 4 value combos ...

For sure is a close decision, may be ...

Forca ! :)

Obrigado :)

Well, A4 has a straight (more value combos). A2s and A3s definitely make sense, but there are few combos, not sure what villains does with Axo pre flop, he might not call every Axo. 65s it's similar, it makes sense, not sure it's in villains range. QT and KT make some sense but we are blocking them hard, including the ones with backdoors, like KcTc.

I don't think it's extremely important to get to a conclusion. Instead, it might be worthwhile for you to check out those x/c flop ranges as PFR.


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