QQ facing a 4b

Hi.

If MP had 100BB, this is a snap fold for me because he has AA here 80% of the time. When he only has 40BB here, he'll definitely show up with plenty of 88-JJ type of hands. I think you are a favourite here vs MP's range.

So this leaves us with BB. If BB is super strong here, we should probably fold. If BB's edge against us isn't too huge or if we are a favourite, we have an easy stack off.

He is 34/19/10.6? 10.6% is his 3b right?
I think he seems pretty loose and aggro and I don't think you should be folding here.

Let's do some more complicated simulations. I'll assume that MP has 40BB, and the other 2 of u have 100BB, for simplification.

3-way main pot - 120BB (40X3)

Equity Win Tie
MP2 32.57% 31.08% 1.49% { QsQc }
MP3 24.01% 21.32% 2.69% { 88+, AQs+, AKo }
CO 43.42% 40.00% 3.42% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Side pot - 120BB (60X2)

Equity Win Tie
MP2 40.21% 38.35% 1.86% { QsQc }
CO 59.79% 57.93% 1.86% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

If you fold here, EV = 0
If you jam here, you are putting in 95BB more. When CO calls, You get back
0.325(120) + 0.4(120) - 95 = 39 + 48 - 95 = -8

Of course, that was with the assumption that BB was never folding vs a jam. If BB folds to a jam some small % of the time, I think your play to jam will start to become +EV here.

When CO folds vs the jam, you are effectively putting in 35bb more. Pot vs MP will have ~100BB

Equity Win Tie
MP2 59.11% 58.02% 1.09% { QsQc }
MP3 40.89% 39.80% 1.09% { 88+, AQs+, AKo }

You would get back 59% X 100BB = 59BB
Net gain = 59 - 35 = 24BB

If BB folds 25% or more of the time, you'll have a +EV jam. (I got 25% because 24 is 3 times of 8, which means that i'll have a 75/25 ratio here to breakeven)

I know the calcs are going to be pretty complicated for a beginner so feel free to ask more questions

Grat answer!

Thanks

I was thinking about this hand for a while and yes, if BB has some bluffs the play would be +EV imo but it would be really weird to 3b = 20bb and fold

given his 3b size i think that folding is not a bad idea..

in other hand, considering 0% of bluff range, mi push would be a 5bet, and im not expeecting villain to call a 100 bb 5bet with AK so probably a nit fold would be the best...

Regards

Marcos

I would say that u have more than 25% foldequity here as this guy seems to have a wide 3b range.