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NL25SH Zoom TPGK vs nit

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SgtJackColt
Joined: 06.03.2011

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $25.10
SB: $22.97
BB: $51.15
UTG: $19.26
Hero (MP): $33.06
CO: $47.43

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q♥ A♣

UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, BTN calls $1.10, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.65, 3 players) A♠ 8♣ 6♠
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.30, BTN calls $2.30, fold

Turn: ($8.25, 2 players) 5♣
Hero bets $5.20, BTN calls $5.20

River: ($18.65, 2 players) 3♦
Hero checks, BTN bets $11.87

Villain

VPIP/PFR/3bet = 17/12/1 (196 hands)

I think against this tight player I've got max 2 value bets. Question is on the River. I need 28%. Do you ch/fold or ch/call without further information?

Ingame I called, cause all flush draws bust. But in hindsight I don't really expect him to bet many worse hands 4 value and I don't know if he is capable of bluffing busted draws. Tight fold?


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2 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

i call, because i expect him to raise sets a decent amount of the time on that specific turn. that said, i really can see folding being good here, some nits don't even raise bottom set for pot control


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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Hi there!

pre flop, flop and turn look good.

River if we had the Qs this would be a clear x/f IMO. Without it gets a bit closer, villain might have maybe around 6 busted FD combos, for value I would actually expect a raise from sets flop or turn, but villain probably plays like this hands like A3s, A5s, A6s.

Let's consider villains value range river 11 combos (88,66, A3s, A5s, A6s). Using "Internet" equation:

72 : 11 = bluff combos : 28

Bluff combos = 4.27 combos.

So, villain would need to bluff 4 combos for us to have a BE call. He might have around 6-7 combos of busted FDs. If villain has less combos of value (like if he raises sets earlier) then we would need him to bluff even less combos.

With this calculation it's close, we are not making a ton of money but it seems like we should call.


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