PokerStars - $44.60+$11.15+$4.25|100/200 NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BB): 37.06 BB
SB: 30.44 BB (VPIP: 18.27, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.94, Hands: 1,819)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♣ T♦
SB raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 1 BB
Flop: (4 BB, 2 players) J♦ 4♠ Q♣
Hero bets 2.5 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB
Turn: (9 BB, 2 players) 6♥
Hero bets 4.5 BB, SB calls 4.5 BB
River: (18 BB, 2 players) K♥
Hero bets 28.06 BB and is all-in, SB calls 21.44 BB and is all-in
Spoiler
Hero shows 8♣ T♦ (High Card, King) (Pre 40%, Flop 19%, Turn 9%)
SB shows 7♠ Q♠ (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 60%, Flop 81%, Turn 91%)
SB wins 60.88 BB
Villian good reg (he made ~ 100k profit in 2011, then he's BE pre rb on avg stakes $53 so he's decently profitable post rb)
I had only 13 hands sample on him from HU; he plays stnd regish play.
This flop hits my range relatively well; I have a lot of Qx and Jx type of hands in my preflop calling range. On the other hand, Im more capped than my opponent.
Can I implement donkbet strategy here? By donkbet, I deny villians opportunity to check back and get a free card, which is reasonable play for him on this board which hit me range well. Im OOP, so in order to nuliffy this disadvantage, I want to fastplay my strong hands - go for c/r with Qx; but if villian would chek behind too often, I would not get opportunity for c/r.
T8o with gutshot looks like ideal candidate to donkbet bluff imho - it has some equity, I can easily barell good turn and rivers, and my opportunity cost is low (this hands is too weak to c/c; so Im comparing the profitability of donkbet only with profitability of c/r).
Second barell here is little bit speculative.
On river, T8o is one of the best bluff I can get here imho; I have some two pairs hands which I want to shove for value, and some my bluffs improved on this river - T9 has str8 and KT has TP, so in order to balance my value shoveing range, T8o with zero showdown equity looks like good candidate to shove as bluff.
Is the assumptions about strenght of my flop range too strong? I analyzed this spot in Flopzilla and I see my villian has decent amount of strong hands in his range too, and his range is not capped. ---> Is this donkbet 3 barelling spew or not?
