Should I just fold this instead of raise/folding?
Poker Stars $7.34+$0.66 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1500/t3000 Blinds + t300 - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
SB: t46321 M = 7.72
BB: t88421 M = 14.74
Hero (UTG): t54802 M = 9.13
CO: t41622 M = 6.94
BTN: t38834 M = 6.47
Pre Flop: (t6000) Hero is UTG with 5♦ 5♠
Hero raises to t6000, 1 fold, BTN raises to t38534 all in, 3 folds
Final Pot: t18000
BTN wins t18000
I think you played correctly, not knowing a player, I would put him on range A9s+, qk, 22+ , not likely he would shove u after seeing min raise from utg with worst hand, but that depends on his stats also, anyway giving that range, he is ~ 55 % ahead of you.
to call: 38534 - 6000 = 32534
pot to win if call: BB + SB + 5 ante + 2x 38534 = 6000 + 77068 = 83068
pot odds: 32534 / 83068 = 0.392 = 39.2% (means "1/2.553" or "1 to 1.553")
calculating bubble factor based on following payout structure:
absolute percent of total price pool with 18 places payed:
1. to 5. place: 30 / 20 / 11.9 / 8 / 6.5
1. to 4. place (5. place subtracted): 23.5 / 13.5 / 5.4 / 1.5
equity pre hand:
http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web-calculators/nashicm/results.html?action=calculate&bb=3000&sb=1500&ante=300&structure=23.5%2C13.5%2C5.4%2C1.5&s1=54802&s2=41622&s3=38838&s4=46321&s5=88421
Hero t54802 20.70%
CO.. t41622 16.69%
BTN. t38834 15.76%
SB.. t46321 18.19%
BB.. t88421 28.66%
sum t270000
equity post hand (hero calls and wins)
http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web-calculators/nashicm/results.html?action=calculate&bb=3000&sb=1500&ante=300&structure=23.5%2C13.5%2C5.4%2C1.5&s1=99036&s2=41322&s3=44521&s4=85121
Hero t99036 31.14%
CO.. t41322 18.61%
BTN. t00000 00.00% (5. place)
SB.. t44521 19.62%
BB.. t85121 29.62%
sum t270000
equity post hand (hero calls and loses)
http://www.holdemresources.net/h/web-calculators/nashicm/results.html?action=calculate&bb=3000&sb=1500&ante=300&structure=23.5%2C13.5%2C5.4%2C1.5&s1=15968&s2=41322&s3=83068&s4=44521&s5=85121
Hero t15968 07.45%
CO.. t41322 17.32%
BTN. t83068 28.23%
SB.. t44521 18.36%
BB.. t85121 28.64%
sum t270000
ICM bubble factor for hero vs BTN:
BF = EV(lose) / EV(win)
BF = (EQpre - EQpostlose) / (EQpostwin - EQpre)
BF = (20.70 - 7.45) / (31.14 - 20.70) = 1.292
ICM tournament odds = (pot odds / BF) : 1 = 1,553/1.292 : 1 = 1.202 : 1
"1 to 1.202" means 1/2.202 = 0.454 = 45.4%
therefore because of ICM hero doesn't need just 39.2% but at least 45.4 percent for a breakeven call
so it all depends on the shoving range of BTN:
(following calculations with free pokerstrategy tool "equilab")
with a tight shoving range it is a clear fold
hero 35.1% (55)
BTN 64.9% (88+ AJs+ AQo+)
with an average shoving range it is just because of ICM a close fold
hero 43.8% (55)
BTN 56.2% (66+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo)
with a somewhat loose shoving range it is a (close) call, even with ICM
hero 48.8% (55)
BTN 51.2% (22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)
