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3barrel bluff vs. reg

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Beatlemanic
Joined: 14.10.2010

PokerStars - $54.80+$5.20|10/20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 75 BB (VPIP: 15.00, PFR: 12.38, 3Bet Preflop: 6.07, Hands: 15,998)
UTG: 76 BB (VPIP: 17.49, PFR: 12.11, 3Bet Preflop: 2.40, Hands: 371)
UTG+1: 71.5 BB (VPIP: 16.42, PFR: 14.61, 3Bet Preflop: 6.18, Hands: 1,961)
MP: 85 BB (VPIP: 17.94, PFR: 14.84, 3Bet Preflop: 5.11, Hands: 3,207)
MP+1: 75 BB (VPIP: 31.60, PFR: 17.89, 3Bet Preflop: 2.84, Hands: 881)
Hero (MP+2): 65 BB
CO: 80 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BTN: 73.5 BB (VPIP: 21.28, PFR: 17.19, 3Bet Preflop: 6.18, Hands: 759)
SB: 74 BB (VPIP: 17.59, PFR: 15.52, 3Bet Preflop: 5.87, Hands: 15,095)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♥ Q♥

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) J♥ 7♣ 2♣
Hero bets 4.25 BB, BTN calls 4.25 BB

Turn: (16 BB, 2 players) A♣
Hero bets 12.5 BB, BTN calls 12.5 BB

River: (41 BB, 2 players) 2♦
Hero bets 45.25 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 41 BB

Villian is decent reg (24k games played, 50k profit, 55 avg bi)

Stats (filtred from 9-7 handed): 17/13/AF 2/3bet 5 / fold to F cbet 25 [12 hands sample]

Pre and flop stnd imo.
Turn: Villian can have flush and AJ; but he probably dont have too many Ax in his range (AK he will probably 3bet preflop, I have blocker for AQ, and lower Ax (mb AQ too) without A :club: he is folding OTF).
I have more Ax than him (Im opening Axs and ATo, while he probably 3bet AK and fold pre ATo and low AXs), and I would bet any Ax (even low aces like A2s - Im not happy with this, but OOP on this structure I need protection and I want to fastplay) ---> Q :heart:T :heart: is reasonable hand for second barrel?
OTR, villian is imho capped - on drawy turn, he would raise his strong hands (two pairs, sets) for protection, while I still have a lot of strong hands in my range ----> 3barrel bluff is best solution with QTs?


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I like the 2 barrel definitely. You are correct in your % of Ax hands vs his % (you can rep a much stronger range on the turn than he can). THe only hands you are really scared of are flushes. After he calls the 2/3 bet on the turn I am hesitant to 3 barrel but I think it depends more on the meta between you. A lot of regs will call 2 barrels light but be very tight calling down 3 barrels (so the 3 barrel can be profitable vs these guys). I think the turn is good, river is questionable, but fine imo.


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