JTs SB

Hi!

Yes I like it. Check behind vs 2 fish,no need to assume you can make them fold any decent hand on the river.And that K on the river actually will make them call even lighter since they wont believe you have one.

The turn bet is a semi-bluff, but the bluff part will rarely work versus two players, and you don't have the equity to bet for value. Check-call turn and fold river.

Nah,betting turn is fine in this spot. They call this flop very wide,prolly close to 100%. Sure they wont fold a pair but any random two holding will have to fold to this turncard. Besides our equity with FD+two overs to 8 is very strong anyway so we dont rly need much FE...b/c is clearly better than cc here imo. If river is A I would also bet river even vs 2 though. You represent a very strong hand and the fact that its 3way they will actually be slightly more inclined to fold some weak pairs.

@ Yohan- If i am Check/Calling Turn then i would be completely exploitable then i guess. You can get people to fold this Turn, but the Fishes wont fold that often.

@ Dawnfall- Really you would bet on a River Ace? Dont You think Check/folding without anything would be correct? The Fishes can have some pocket pair, a 3, 4 or 8 or may be an Ace as some Fishes not folding Ace high

Originally posted by gnananandan
@ Yohan- If i am Check/Calling Turn then i would be completely exploitable then i guess. You can get people to fold this Turn, but the Fishes wont fold that often.
...

Being somewhat balanced (unexploitable) is important heads-up. The better your opponent, the more important it is unless you like leveling wars. Multiway, the importance of it goes down much much more than people think (based on what I have read over time in these forums). For instance, never never bluffing 4-ways is close to being perfectly balanced.

A simplified version of the math works like this: Suppose for the sake of reasoning that you need 25% FE to make a bet more profitable than a check-call. Versus one opponent, a bet is immediately profitable if he folds 25% of the time. Versus two opponents who will fold independently of each other with 25% frequency, your actual fold equity is 0.25*0.25 = 0.0625 = 6.25%.

You actually need 50% turn folds from both of them to achieve 25% FE in this simple model. This is something you rarely will see.

And no, with J :heart:T :heart:, you can't be much exploited here. If someone fires twice with what he thinks is a bluff when you check, then he is quite likely to be bluffing with the best hand. Moreover, the above math applies to the opponents as well. They should be bluffing much much less than heads-up.

I'm not claiming Dawnfall is wrong in this particular spot. I haven't done the exact numbers, and the model above is a simplification because there are more betting rounds. But there is a chance that the bet isn't as obvious as he seems to think.

The reason why I think turnbet is super easy is because of their huge ranges. There are a ton of hands like Q7,9T,J6,............ which they will now fold. Even vs 2 oponents this is a perfect barrel card and certainly the best way to invest 1BB.

Equity Win Tie
MP3 37.19% 36.35% 0.84% 77-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K2s, QTs-Q2s, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o
SB 24.68% 24.29% 0.40% JhTh
BB 38.13% 37.30% 0.83% 88-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T7o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o

That imo is the situation once the flop hits. If u assume you cant barrel them off at any point why would you even bet flop when clearly you are behind their ranges...that imo is a clear flaw since it seems obv that they will fold a decent % of the time either flop or turn or even river.

When they both just call flop their ranges change,rly strong hands get way less likely(overpairs,8x,sets)...Their most likely holdings are overcards,and there is soooo much of them...Lets take the worst scenario...that they both just call with their strong hands but they will also just call with all their crap since they either have gutshot,overcards or good BD draw.

Equity Win Tie
MP3 35.70% 35.13% 0.57% 77-22, A9s-A2s, K9s-K2s, QTs-Q2s, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo-A2o, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o
SB 27.94% 27.68% 0.26% JhTh
BB 36.37% 35.81% 0.55% 88-22, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 94s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, AQo-A2o, K2o+, Q4o+, J6o+, T7o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o

Hitting that turn actually improves your equity and you are not far from almost making a valuebet.If we take into account that ppl do raise overpairs or TP or even some other pairs sometimes then your equity even goes up

Then taking a look at their ranges and you will see how many weak hands are in the range and that they consists of about 30-50% of their ranges. If that is the range that they fold you can estimate that you will get them both to fold at least 15% but imo even more. That would make your bet about even money just from odds and outs not to mention that you will actually realise your equity on the river a lot better when you hit with initiative than without it. It also provides at least some balance to your turnbets.

Now lets look at the option of you checking. Its hard to say what are the ranges that they will bet here. Yes you may safe a bet when they decide to check back 4x,2x,Ahigh but against those hands your equity is obviously pretty good even on turn. Its also reasonable to assume that they will to some degree be bluffing here with their air(a hand like J5,T8,....) and quite likely that when they bet turn they will also barrel the river at least when it gets HU...so they will make you fold the best hand some portion of the time which would be pretty sad. All in all you are playing a much bigger guessing game by checking here just because you dont have as much control over their ranges.

Those would be my argument why I think betting turn here has much higher EV than cc. If this gets HU on the river then Im even bluffing on some river card just because I think oponents range will still include FDs,Ax,some SDs or even just whatever and you are getting pretty good price on the river.

If you need one big screen in fine print of analysis to prove your point, then it isn't super-easy

Betting turn leaves you with another non-trivial decision on the river. An advanced player should probably go ahead, while a beginner is more likely to screw up, either on the river this hand, or in other hands where the board has a different, less favorable structure.

and checking wont leave you with another non trivial decition on the river? and if you play FL with intention of avoiding non trivial decitions Im sure you wont get very far... but I mean if you think that its better to check and play on odds and outs then by all means do so. I however am pretty confident in a bet having much higher EV then checking

There are other ways of getting into marginal winning situations, like opening very very wide and reading the board like a god. Would you recommend that to everybody, even if they don't have a clue about postflop play?

Yes, I do think an inexperienced player has less EV than an experienced player will have with certain plays in certain spots. This is one of them.

I do agree with you on that inexperianced players can transfer marginally +EV spots into -EV moves and I do think such cases are not even that rare. But I also think that ideology that "you solve the problem by avoiding it" is not rly the optimal way of approaching the problem.

If a guy "doesnt have a clue about postflop play" then basically it doesnt rly matter since he will be a big looser and should improve in that regard.But also...
Lets assume you are in a situation that you consider marginal(since they may not seem marginal to all, for example this one doesnt seem marginal to me and it clearly does to you, while there are some that seem marginal to me and dont seem marginal to you); so how can you rly apply your idea of choosing the safe way out when decitions between you are choosing are so close in EV. Just taking the passive one is clearly not optimal way and most of the time is the wrong way. What you can do in such situation is that you use all the knowledge that you have at your disposal and make the best possible move. Then in post mortem you can analyse and improve so that next time such spot will not be marginal anymore.

I believe when ppl start out with any kind of game they are constantly faced with this dilema and often approach it the wrong way.

And I think I wrote long enough posts to explain my logic behind why I think betting turn here is prefferable in my opinion and I do believe that EV of b/ct is a lot better than EV of c/c so this is not even marginal to me. But lets make a short summary again:
Betting turn is a better way to invest that 1BB in this pot. By betting you maximize your FE(this card is one of the better ones for it) which by cc you dont use. By betting turn you prevent yourself from being bluffed which can happen when their range are so super wide and also by betting you will realise your equity close to perfectly when you hit one of your outs on the river(by just betting any card that improves you) meanwhile if you c/c then you certainly have a tricky situation to deal with when you hit J,T or even a flush.

I would actually bet here even if turn was Kc just because I think its the best way to exploit the equity that you are given.

Turn is a bet! You just have Jx and a good portion of better hands can fold and this is one of a legit semibluffing-hand. i would agree on other boardstructures but on this one - as dawnfall already mentioned - they could have peeled with almost their entire range and if they have Kx, so be it but some sort of Ax Jx Qx hands have to fold now and you keep an opportunity to bluffbet the River again against Ax with Gutshot although it's questionble to bet the River again after being called on such a dry board but however. Turn is a clear semibluffbet and River against 2 is a c/f.