PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): $50.03
SB: $29.34
BB: $63.32
UTG: $37.59
MP: $32.18
CO: $29.13
SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A♣ 3♣
fold, MP raises to $0.85, fold, Hero raises to $2.40, fold, fold, MP calls $1.55
Flop: ($5.15, 2 players) 9♥ 8♣ Q♣
MP checks, Hero bets $2.80, MP calls $2.80
Turn: ($10.75, 2 players) 9♣
MP checks, Hero bets $6.00, MP calls $6.00
River: ($22.75, 2 players) 3♥
MP bets $20.98 and is all-in, Hero calls $20.98
Villain: 23/14 (124 hands)
OTR I need 32%.
Maybe his range looks sth like this:
Board: 9♥Q♣8♣ 9♣ 3♥
Equity Win Tie
SB 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% { 99, QdQs, QhQs, 8d8s, 8h8s, 98s, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, 7c6c, 6c5c }
BB 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% { Ac3c }
I discounted some QQ and 88. Maybe he raises them sometimes before River.
Based on a population read I tended heavily towards folding.
I'm pretty high up my range but this line is nutty as hell. Ranges are a bit asymmetric too, he has more FH/Quads in his range. But I thought there could be some worse flushes. I didn't count them but thought it would be enough for 33%.
Villain was marked as a fish. I'm not sure about this anymore because of his stats. I didn't pay that much attention to them. If I know for sure villain is a reg I would have snap folded because almost no one at my limit is capable of bluffing in that spot and other flushes are unlikely. Moreover the board and my hand blocks a lot of flushes.
How do you handle these spots against unknowns/recreational players?
Just exploitively fold?
Do you see weaker flushes in that spot?
What do you think of turning Qx into a bluff OTR in villains shoes?
