DP max on 3bet pot, 140bb deep, drawy board

when someone like this (ultrapassiv) pot the flop i guess its AA with the nfd or at least nfd+pair, gutter etc. because deeper i would call flop and shove safe turn. dunno if u are a large favorite here if he has AA with nfd or nfd+wrap or gutter

ye AAxx + NFD I was thinking at that.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Q♥T♥2♣
AQt9:wxyz 49.92% (298,158 wins, 2,756 ties)
AhA*h 50.08% (299,086 wins, 2,756 ties)

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other (big) hands

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
408,360 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Q♥T♥2♣
AQt9:wxyz 41.35% (152,928 wins, 31,844 ties)
Ah Kh Q 58.65% (223,588 wins, 31,844 ties)

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
1,210,320 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Q♥T♥2♣
AQt9:wxyz 38.66% (461,458 wins, 12,844 ties)
Kh Jh A 61.34% (736,018 wins, 12,844 ties)

...

this villain weakstation preflop, but have a %age cbet "normal" (opraising 5% and 3betting 2%, he cbet ok then ♦ )

so imo he doesn't allways have monsters here when he cbet.
... but the potsizing doesn't smell good indeed

"i would call flop and shove safe turn"

yeah that's not a kind of reasonment I actually use when I've good made hand on drawy board
(excepted the spots when the risk of being hard freerolled is big, typically spots like flop big SPR, have flopped bare nut straight, board hyper drawy, big SPR and Villain repoting on it. yeah i would often call and see what turn happen).
But in this spot, when I've made hand (set, DP max) on drawy board, if I think I'm not fucked by biggest made hand (set when I DP, overset etc...), I use to shove to value/protection/FE a maximum.
Maybe it's a mistake

I use to shove to value/protection/FE a maximum.

i know what u mean. but honestly i dont think u have any FE in a 3bpot when villian pots here. also as we see in ure calculation u are not a favorite here and protection in this case....dunno....

i mean it could be +-0 ev but as i said i would all flop and see turn against this type of villian in this scenario

Hi,

the problem in this spot if you wait for the equity shift is that you are not sure what a blank turn is. Is J a blank? Is a 9 a blank? I think it's safest to take the flip and go AI, so we don't make a mistake ott.

Regards,

Skod

Originally posted by Skodljivec
Hi,

the problem in this spot if you wait for the equity shift is that you are not sure what a blank turn is. Is J a blank? Is a 9 a blank? I think it's safest to take the flip and go AI, so we don't make a mistake ott.

Regards,

Skod

i know but do u think he will blindbarrel all of this cards?

He doesn't need to blind barrel. What do you do if turn is J and he jams? If turn is 9? If turn is 8? how do you know you make a correct call/fold?

Regards,

Skod