8As BB

Looks fine. You could also play it slower on the flop.

Hi!

Flop I like the raise,you basically raise for value and dont rly mind kicking BU out playing IP when you can play your hand perfectly in most scenarios.

Turn call only move.

River is very very close to a cap especially if this is micros 10c/20c or bellow. BU never has you beat and SB still has worse flushes or just 9x,also his stats dont seem one of a very strong player. Another good things is that you dont fear getting 5bet so you only need 33-50% vs him(depends how often BU will call).

Vs reasonable oposition I dont mind your call.

3bet pre and cap river. your playing 5/Tc these guys will go crazy with worse than your hand.

Originally posted by Avataren
3bet pre and cap river. your playing 5/Tc these guys will go crazy with worse than your hand.

+1....

Yes flop can totally be capped even vs reasonable oposition since nut FD can be raised for value vs 2+ oponents. Only problem is that you will run into some tricky river decitions when board blanks out.

Preflop is also ok to 3bet especially vs BU+SB combos when your hand has clear value.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Yes flop can totally be capped even vs reasonable oposition since nut FD can be raised for value vs 2+ oponents. Only problem is that you will run into some tricky river decitions when board blanks out.

Preflop is also ok to 3bet especially vs BU+SB combos when your hand has clear value.

cap river not flop i said i dont like capping flop here

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Yes flop can totally be capped even vs reasonable oposition since nut FD can be raised for value vs 2+ oponents. Only problem is that you will run into some tricky river decitions when board blanks out.

Preflop is also ok to 3bet especially vs BU+SB combos when your hand has clear value.

If we cap flop, I can see slight problems on the turn already. Checking (or calling an SB donk) would be such a give-away. But if we bet (or raise), then we are bluffing 3-ways. Capping flop may be okay, but it's definitely hardest option to play well later.

Interesting hand.
Personally, I don't like the raise on the flop. By raising you're basically pushing BB out of the hand, and HU it's no longer a value raise. You probably know that you need at least 50% equity to profitably raise for value against one opponent. You have 12 outs at most (FD + OC), which doesn't give you the required equity. (14 outs would give you 51% equity, which should be enough.)

As played, I would definitely cap the flop for value. Just like this example from the theory:

Preflop: Hero is BU with 8 :diamond:, 9
2 fold, UTG+2 calls, 4 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4 :diamond:, J :spade:, 2 (4 players)
BB bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3bets, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero caps!

Call T is fine of course.

River is close for a cap, maybe an equity analysis can help here.

Well,if you kick BB out with your raise then your hand becomes a made one. You now beat a lot of draws he might have donked out. You cant judge your hand by outs alone.

Ah interesting, raising for value with Ahigh, I didn't think of that option. Now if you raise because you have the best hand, you do need at least 50% equity, right?

I highly wondered whether you have that much equity, so I made a little equity analysis:

Board: 4♥9♣2♣
       Equity   Winst   Split
SB     53.20%  53.14%   0.06% { 99-44, 22, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, 54s, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Kc8c, A9o, K9o }
BB     46.80%  46.75%   0.06% { Ac8c }

According to this analysis it's very close. But since I never come in such spot being the SB (I either 3bet or fold), I found it rather hard to put SB on a certain range. So I'm curious to hear if you should alter the above range somehow.

Edit: little correction in my equity analysis

I agree,your equity is around 50% vs him.Even if it is slightly less its still profitable since you certainly gained a bit when the third guy folded. And if he doesnt, well then you certainly raised for value with your FD alone.

But its also very important to note whatever such players show you at SD. This way you can put him on a range with much better accuracy.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Even if it is slightly less its still profitable since you certainly gained a bit when the third guy folded.

Huh? How can it be profitable if your equity is slightly less than 50%? I should say that, if your equity is slightly less than 50%, it's simply slightly bad. Am i missing something obvious here?

If the third guy calls it's certainly profitable of course (since you would only need 33,3% equity).

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
But its also very important to note whatever such players show you at SD. This way you can put him on a range with much better accuracy.

But these type of hands are also very much +Variance. Furthermore you gain no valuable information if villain shows you an obvious hand like 44. This in combination with the fact that it's slightly minus EV, I still don't really like the raise. (But since it's so close you cannot call it bad either.)

Hi!

If you make a third guy fold, part of his equity share is given to you.

On the flop after SB donks I would estimate your equity to be around 35-40%(lets say 37,5%). Once you make third guy fold your equity got bigger and is not at around 50%(lets even say 47%). So you got 10% boost with that raise. Math at this point I assume is not rly super easy since there are many variables to be considered.

But if we assume that we dont mind if the third guy goes for any additional action(and here we certainly dont) we can only focus on the case when he folds. In this case its pretty clear that we preffer to have 47% equity instead of 35% because in that 0,5BB raise that we make we are only loosing 3% of it but we are gaining 10% of the total pot.

Now you may argue that it may be better to not make the third guy fold so that our implied odds are better for further streets. But is that really the case. What is the difference in the ranges that he will continue when we raise and when we just call.

He clearly will not fold FDs,9x+ in any case.
If we call he will continue super wide.He will call basically any two over,any Ax,Kx,any BDFD so I would guess 80%+
If we raise he most likely wont fold good Ax,pockets,maybe even 4x or even some Kx,Qx with BDFD.

So the real difference between the two ranges is in random overcard,Ax,Kx. Are those really the cards where we gain a lot of implied odds...no they are not!... since these cards wont see the SD most of the time. But what these cards will do is they will only continue if they hit turn(and that is not very often) in which case our equity will go down a lot.
So in fact our implied odds are better vs his range when he continues in a raised situation than in a calling one!

And the point about position is also pretty good one. If we raise and get it HU we will end up IP which is very very awesome since it will allow us to play perfectly vs him in most cases(which is to bet again turn and check behind river). Same is clearly not true when we just call since now he will dictate the tempo and there will always be another guy behind you to act.

Oh and about seeing what he shows at SD. It is very important to note in this case whatever he shows you. If he shows you TP or set than I would probably think that this guy probably just donks when he has it and is passive otherwise. Sure a few more spots like this wont hurt but that certainly a hypothesis I would make after seeing it(since donking TP or set in this spot is obviously very bad). If he donks FD(which is also bad) that tells me that he probably likes to donk bluff so I would clearly be a bit more SD bound vs his donks next time. If he shows you mid or bottom pair(which is what I would suspect a lot of ppl have in this spot) then I assume he is more of a passive kind of guy who is afraid to c/r but at the same time doesnt want to give freecards.
If they fold at some point or you get to see a hand like Ax,random overcards then its a clear sign that this guy just likes to donk whatever on the flop and raises like this one become extremely profitable since your equity will be much higher than in our assumed case.

Wow, such a long post. I'm glad you're willing to elaborate on this because I find this an interesting hand.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
If you make a third guy fold, part of his equity share is given to you.

On the flop after SB donks I would estimate your equity to be around 35-40%(lets say 37,5%). Once you make third guy fold your equity got bigger and is not at around 50%(lets even say 47%). So you got 10% boost with that raise. Math at this point I assume is not rly super easy since there are many variables to be considered.

I agree that your equity obviously rises when the third guy folds. But shouldn't your equity rise to at least 50% to be profitable? 33% equity is enough when you're playing with three in the hand, because you get 2 bets from them for every bet you make. Analogously, your equity should be at least 50% HU. So you go from a profitable situation (37,5% > 33,3%) to a slightly unprofitable situation (47% < 50%). Or am I missing something here?

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
But if we assume that we dont mind if the third guy goes for any additional action(and here we certainly dont) we can only focus on the case when he folds.

I agree, the ideal situation would even be a 3bet followed by a cap 3way.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
In this case its pretty clear that we prefer to have 47% equity instead of 35% because in that 0,5BB raise that we make we are only loosing 3% of it but we are gaining 10% of the total pot.

Like I say above, I should think you go from a slightly winning to a slightly losing situation.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Now you may argue that it may be better to not make the third guy fold so that our implied odds are better for further streets. But is that really the case. What is the difference in the ranges that he will continue when we raise and when we just call.

He clearly will not fold FDs,9x+ in any case.
If we call he will continue super wide.He will call basically any two over,any Ax,Kx,any BDFD so I would guess 80%+
If we raise he most likely wont fold good Ax,pockets,maybe even 4x or even some Kx,Qx with BDFD.

I should say that the ranges are little bit tighter.
His range if we call: 2 OC's, FD, any pair and better made hand.
His range if we raise: FD, 9x and better made hands.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
So the real difference between the two ranges is in random overcard,Ax,Kx. Are those really the cards where we gain a lot of implied odds...no they are not!... since these cards wont see the SD most of the time. But what these cards will do is they will only continue if they hit turn(and that is not very often) in which case our equity will go down a lot.
So in fact our implied odds are better vs his range when he continues in a raised situation than in a calling one!

The different in the ranges are indeed hands where we don't get a lot of implied odds, in the sense that they certainly won't raise if they hit a pair on the turn. But if they don't hit they will probably still call a lot of turn cards with overcards. And if they do hit we still have at least 33% equity because of the nut flush draw.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
And the point about position is also pretty good one. If we raise and get it HU we will end up IP which is very very awesome since it will allow us to play perfectly vs him in most cases(which is to bet again turn and check behind river). Same is clearly not true when we just call since now he will dictate the tempo and there will always be another guy behind you to act.

But what if he bets the turn? 3way it should be a super easy call for value, you would even hope the third guy raises. HU on the other hand, you don't get the right odds to continue (only 12 outs, you would need 14). You can maybe call with implied odds, but it's an easier decision 3way if you should ask me.

And just in general, aren't draws the ideal hands to play multiway? Especially the nut FD? You get lot of implied odds and only small reverse implied odds. A made hand like TP on the other hand is something you prefer to get HU.

Originally posted by Dawnfall26
Oh and about seeing what he shows at SD. It is very important to note in this case whatever he shows you. If he shows you TP or set than I would probably think that this guy probably just donks when he has it and is passive otherwise. Sure a few more spots like this wont hurt but that certainly a hypothesis I would make after seeing it(since donking TP or set in this spot is obviously very bad). If he donks FD(which is also bad) that tells me that he probably likes to donk bluff so I would clearly be a bit more SD bound vs his donks next time. If he shows you mid or bottom pair(which is what I would suspect a lot of ppl have in this spot) then I assume he is more of a passive kind of guy who is afraid to c/r but at the same time doesnt want to give freecards.
If they fold at some point or you get to see a hand like Ax,random overcards then its a clear sign that this guy just likes to donk whatever on the flop and raises like this one become extremely profitable since your equity will be much higher than in our assumed case.

It seems to me that you're way overestimating the information you get from a single hand. For example if he shows you TP, you can't extrapolate that to 'he's passive unless he has it', it's possible that he would donk as well with a FD.
You also mention that it would be very bad for the SB to donk with a set. What would be the best value line? c/c F, b T? I don't like c/r here because it's such an 'action killer'.

Just a lost note: sorry for disagreeing with you so much.
It's not that I want to be stubborn or so, I just feel that I'm learning a lot by discussing such hands extensively.

1. Imagine for sake of argument:
Pot on the flop is 1000BB and you are faced with 1BB bet. If you call a bet you have 30% equity and will therefore win 300BB+(30% of what will go in). In this case its kindda irrelavant since bets are small in comparison to the pot.
If you raise you equity goes up to 40% but you obviously now pay 1BB more than before. So in this case you will win 400BB+(40% of what you put in).

Here its pretty clear that a part of pot you gain from your equity boost(10% which is 100BB is far superior to deficit of that 1BB raise(here you will only win 40% of it so you loose 0,2BB every time)

In our case things are much closer but still 10% of 7SB pot=0,7SB is more than
3% loss of your 1SB raise which is pretty small.

2. I actually dont think the idea situation is when they go for a cap since then you are probably at best BE with your equity since two pair,FD+pair,sets,overpairs are getting more likely and vs these hands your equity is not that great. Its still ok and it wont happen super often so you dont really mind this option too much. But I think the best scenario is when BU folds and SB just calls or they both just call. In this case you are where you wanted to be.

3. explained in 1.

4. I agree with your ranges but Im sure that on average BU will sometimes also call a bit wider so him having a hand like 77,A4 can be expected sometimes since its not really an easy fold with these hands and probably an incorrect one.

5. If we hit turn flush overcards will fold most of the time since they will find a flush card a bad one(unless they have FD themselves),same goes for A so we dont really have that great implied odds vs these. If we miss our draw however our equity will drop a lot because just one card is yet to come. We clearly will have enough to continue but I dont think its implied odds we are talking here.
Also there is a chance that overcards will hit in which case their equity will go up super huge,which is exactly what we want to deny them from with our raise.

6. I dont understand this one. You mean if he donks turn in HU? In that case we are just calling obviously if we dont hit and I would intend to see SD assuming he has some FD combos in his range. But this scenario is not super likely imo.
About playing FDs multiway for implied odds. Well we covered that, implied odds are good when oposition hold strong hands. Here as we saw opostion will actually hold better hands when we raise and they call and not when we just call. In this case we are just letting them realise their part of equity.

7. Again I will say that even one hand has a lot of info especially if what they show is weird! Sure it will never be a perfect picture, but you need to start somewhere and when you will see 10 of these donking hands you will already have a much better idea of how they think. If for example they show you a weak made hand now,then next time they show you TP. Then you see them play FDs passive in such spots then you can start assuming that their donks are probably more on the value side and should adapt accordingly. If they however c/r top pair,play passive with bottom pair and donk with FD then its time to raise here even more often for obvious reasons.
Also if you see them donk here with made hands then when they c/c they have this range super weak and you can 3 barrel such players off their hand with very high %. That is what exploiting means.

I understand it now. Especially point 1 was an eyeopener since I completely disregarded the size of the pot.
Thank you for your patient explanations Dawnfall!