Flop defence of 456r

Am I missing something? I dont seem to get 143 combos after flop.

Originally posted by ZeDawning
Am I missing something? I dont seem to get 143 combos after flop.

You are right...I counted AK in my range when it clearly isn't.

Amended...

132 combos to flat PF...

123 excluding flop cards...

Leaves 70 combos to defend on the flop...which is closer to the 55 I have...but still not there...

I get 123 combos. So Im gonna assume you also call w T9s.
So 127 combos.
Target defense @ 72 combos.

Value Raise - Set (9), 77(6)
Bluff Raise - Ax and Kx.bdfd(18)
Flat - Overpairs (24), 22,33 (12)
Total = 69

I think 69 is okayish. We can also raise w AQo too but meh, it gives too much of an imbalance b/n value and bluff.

-> Still BR is 1.2x more than VR but this can be justified by,
- We are IP
- Flop doesn't hit villain's range well

Personally, as default, I might even call w Ax.bdfd and raise AQo and Kx.bdfd. So I defend even more, on a board which doesnt hit villain that well.
But this is assuming villain CBs 100% of his range, which might not be the case.

Originally posted by ZeDawning
I get 123 combos. So Im gonna assume you also call w T9s.
So 127 combos.
Target defense @ 72 combos.

Value Raise - Set (9), 77(6)
Bluff Raise - Ax and Kx.bdfd(18)
Flat - Overpairs (24), 22,33 (12)
Total = 69

I think 69 is okayish. We can also raise w AQo too but meh, it gives too much of an imbalance b/n value and bluff.

-> Still BR is 1.2x more than VR but this can be justified by,
- We are IP
- Flop doesn't hit villain's range well

Personally, as default, I might even call w Ax.bdfd and raise AQo and Kx.bdfd. So I defend even more, on a board which doesnt hit villain that well.
But this is assuming villain CBs 100% of his range, which might not be the case.

Villian in EP with a low flop is going to cbet a large portion of his range. I sure am!

Thank you for the input and putting up with my scattered numbers, clearly I'm just getting a handle on thinking at this level.

Cheers,
TC

Originally posted by TeamCupcake

If I'm building a defence against the cbet here, I need to defend 57% (5.6/(5.6+7.5) = 43%...or thereabouts.

This is a very poor assumption to start with. Some reasoning why this doesn't work is in this video of mine: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/32388/

You can flat 22 and AJ KQ as well on the flop. 22 is a pretty standard call. AJs KQs only if you have a reason for it, like he cbets too much or plays too tight on 4-straight runouts.