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nl100 qq

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sandraardnas
Joined: 11.01.2012

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $124.43 (124.4 bb)
BB: $172.07 (172.1 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
MP: $50.25 (50.3 bb)
CO: $126.20 (126.2 bb)
BTN: $133.55 (133.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $2.50, BTN folds, Hero raises to $9, BB folds, CO calls $6.50

Flop: ($19) 3 8 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $11, CO calls $11

Turn: ($41) A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($41) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $46.36, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$41 pot ($1.84 rake)
Final Board: 3 8 3 A T
Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-$20 net)
CO mucked and won $39.16 ($19.16 net)

Hey villain is some unk reg.
On flop I expect him to float a lot of Ahighs, so this turn helps him much, I dont think I can valuebet against cutoffs range, so I check.

On this river should I bet for value from 99, JJ, 89s?

As played when he bets I dont think I can call, if he floated flop then he would most likely bluff turn, so here he must turn some 89, 99 into bluff and he certainly has TT and he might have some low Ahxh.
I think its not huge deal that I fold this river 100% especially to overbet, until I collect some good read.


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

I think you could probably squeeze a 1/2 pot valuebet from JJ's and sometimes 99.

When he bets, I think it's pretty much whatever. Probably just fold to an unknown. Probably should be calling about half the time of the time with stuff like KK, QQ.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Turn: You have around 52% equity against a wide Flop floating range (if we give him plenty of AJ/AQ combos) so checking is probably best

River: When he doesnt bet the Turn we can probably eliminate a ton of AX from his range.

If I assume he bets AQ+ and AJ (70% of the time) on the Turn, you have around 73% equity which should be enough to value bet the River around 30-50% of the pot.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

So the previous sims were done for 30% CO opening range and 10% SB merged 3bet range.

Now I'll do them for 60% BU opening range and 20% SB merged 3bet range.

It definitely gets a lot worse when ranges are wider because the caller's range contains even more AX hands. SB's equity falls to 40%, and river gets tricky depending on how thinly we expect BU to value bet.


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