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AQs against Turn raise

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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

Hello,

Here is my hand:

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players Zoom

SB: $2 (100 bb)
BB: $2.03 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $2.95 (147.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $2.20 (110 bb)
CO: $1.58 (79 bb)
BTN: $1.05 (52.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.05, CO calls $0.05, BTN folds, SB calls $0.04, BB folds

Flop: ($0.17) 8 J Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.06, CO calls $0.06, SB folds

Turn: ($0.29) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.21, CO raises to $0.56, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$0.71 pot ($0.02 rake)
Final Board: 8 J Q J
Hero mucked A Q and lost (-$0.32 net)
CO mucked and won $0.69 ($0.37 net)

Villain:
20/17
3bet 0
4bet 0
AF 1,0
37 hands on him
No info about Cbets or raises yet.

My thought process:

Preflop:
Standart raise.

Flop:
I have a top pair, top kicker and a flush draw so I bet slightly less than a half pot to involve both opponents.

Turn:
Another J. A danger of a full house. I bet 3/4 to find out if he has a strong hand. In my opinion only strong hands would call and monsters would raise 90% of a time. He raises. For me it means he has a monster hand - full house or even 4 of a kind. I fold.

The question:
1. Was my thought process correct?
2. How can I mathematically count if calling his raise or doing all in on the turn would be correct?

Thank you,
599ALG


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9 replies

Hello,

Why is raising 2.5bb from MP standard for you? I'd make it at least 3bb preflop.

Flop is quite drawy, we have a strong hand so we should be looking forward to making the pot bigger => bet $0.15.

Turn bet is good. However, when he raises, I don't really mind folding on a paired board and being OOP.

You can calculate this by:
- open Equilab and run the hand, so you can find out what equity you have against his range
- you need to call 35 cents for a total of 141 cents, so the needed equity is 35/141 = 0.248 = 24.8%. So if you have 24.8% or more against his range you can make a +EV call.

Best,
Plamen


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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

Thank you for your reply.

Regarding the preflop raise:

You are right. I should have done 3bb there.

Regarding maths:

Thank you for helping me to count that.

Here is a print screen from Equilab:

Can I check if I put everything to Equilab correctly? I didn't use this application yet. If I put everything there correctly it shows that I have 71,44% Equity and I must call. (I needed only 24,8% Equity to make a call)

Thank you,
599ALG


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Well, you have given him quite a lot of hands.

On the turn, he won't have 66 to raise with, also he probably won't raise with QT.

He will mostly have Jx hands and probably some slowplayed T9.


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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

I have just put his raising range into Equilab and Equilab picked the hands.

Should I put possible hands instead of just his raising range myself? (17%)


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So why would you put his raising range, when he called preflop, and not raised?

You could try it this way:
- what hands he would possibly call preflop
- out of those hands, with what hands he would call on the flop - notice that he didn't raise there.
- what of the hands that called on the flop would raise the turn.

Overall, I believe his range mostly consists of Jx hands here like JT/KJ/AJ, and sometimes some T9.


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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

Thank you for your advise.

So, here is how it should probably look:

I have 44,67% Equity and I needed 24,8% to call. So, the call would be a right decision here.


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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

Thank you for your advise.

So, here is how it should probably look:

I have 44,67% Equity and I needed 24,8% to call. So, the call would be a right decision here.


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I would rather exclude hands like JJ/88, also QJ, and I don't really think he would raise KQ here.

I would give him something like AJs,KJs,J9s+,T9s,AJo,KJo against which we have 24.3%, so a call would be slightly -EV.


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599ALG
Joined: 13.08.2014

Thank you for your advise.


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