Full Tilt - 2500/5000 NL - Holdem - 8 players
BTN: 64,140 (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 51)
SB: 352,675 (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 73,672 (VPIP: 34.38, PFR: 3.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
UTG: 96,564 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG+1: 316,026 (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 35)
Hero (MP): 320,485
MP+1: 49,232 (VPIP: 11.86, PFR: 1.79, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 62)
CO: 239,206 (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
8 players post ante of 600, SB posts SB 2,500, BB posts BB 5,000
Pre Flop: (pot: 12,300) Hero has A 
J 
fold, fold, Hero raises to 12,500, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 25,000, fold, Hero calls 12,500
Flop : (59,800, 2 players) K 
4 J 
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn : (59,800, 2 players) A
SB bets 194,000
This is at the final table of a 500 person tourney, so losing a spot meant a big change in payout. I raised 2.5 as the table was playing very passive, as BTN and MP+1 were folding everything.
I don't have many hands against SB so if I'm putting him on a range, I would think TT+ and AQ+...maybe KQs and AJs. With 3.75:1 odds and position I decide to see a flop...
When he checks the flop, I'm thinking most AA, QQ, AK, KQs are gone from his range as I feel he would bet them. I check back incase he is checking KK or AA as any c/r I fold.
The confusing part is when he 4x pot the A turn... I feel this is a very scared bet and polarizes him to AQ, QQ or KK...with KK I feel he would bet less...and I'm dominating AQ or QQ...
My dilemma was this is a make or break situation for this tourney and a really strange line...what are people's thoughts??
Cheers,
TC
