Learning to bet big

Hello,

I don't like your play.

Fold preflop. You are OOP, you do not close the action + you hand is dominated as people don't have wide range to 3b against early positions.

Could you explain your thinking process about postflop? Why do you donk on this board?
Why are we betting 1/4 pot on this turn and calling against a raise and donking on this river? Try to put him on a range of hands.

Best,
Plamen

Hello Plamen,

Thank you for your reply.

Preflop:

I have called preflop because he:
3bet: 6,4 (CO 3bet vs EP 19 (16))

19/3 = 6,3 is our range to defend. AQs is in the top 4 % range, so it is even stronger than we need to call his 3bet.

+EV call.

Flop:

Is my bet really a donk bet on the flop? I have continued my actions after the preflop and my bet wasn't out of nowhere. At the time of playing the hand I thought that I did a C-bet and he:
Fold to C-bet 38 (26) on the flop.

We need 33 % to break even and here we have a 38%.

+EV C-bet.

Turn:

His: [C-bet/Fold] Turn: 100 (1)

It is not enough samples we have but I can still hope to see his fold on the turn after my second C-bet.

He raises, but his:
Turn Raise C-bet 33 (6)
He is raising with a very wide range, so with a top pair and top kicker I should call.

+EV call.

River:

Opponent:
River Cbet IP 100 (2)
and most importantly:
River Fold to Cbet IP 100 (2)
So, if I bet I have a high chance of him folding and if I check - he will push. With alright hand I preferred to push first with a high fold equity because if I check he would bet anyway.

+EV call.

This evaluation is at my current knowledge level and I believe there are mistakes there. If you could give me an advise that would be great.

Thank you,
599ALG

so how often do you hit flop?
just ~36%

to break even you have to win at least 50%
if you are in position or have a very strong read you can compensate the +14% by bluffing

Bonecore,

That is a good question. I never counted that.
Can you tell me how did you count to come up with 36%?

Hey,

Do you think that those 19% 3bet vs EP are his real stats? I highly doubt that so until you get bigger sample I would just consider folding preflop.

A donk bet is a term where you have played passively preflop and bet first postflop, so yes - you are donking.
Moreover, he'd probably bet this board with most of his range, so there is more value in letting him bet.

On the turn he can barely fold anything against a 1/4 bet, and we don't really want him to fold here, as he is never folding better hands, ever.

As played, for these odds no better hand will fold again.

In conclusion, I think you are reading stats wrong and making dramatic changes to your game according to stats like fold to river cbet IP after just 1-2 samples. I would suggest you to use less stats until you can use them well, because otherwise they just don't help you at all.

Thank you for your advise.

example HOW often does AK hit a flop
you have 6 outs to hit from a total of 50 unknown cards
6/50 = 0.120 for fist card of flop
6/49 = 0.122 for second card of the flop
6/48 = 0.125 for third card

0.120+0.122+0.125=0.367
36%