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KK on meh flop OOP

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Beatlemanic
Joined: 14.10.2010

PokerStars - $92.15+$7.85|15/30 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 39.57 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
UTG: 50.33 BB (VPIP: 14.12, PFR: 9.73, 3Bet Preflop: 2.45, Hands: 531)
Hero (UTG+1): 45 BB
MP: 36.9 BB (VPIP: 62.50, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
MP+1: 61.83 BB (VPIP: 20.80, PFR: 13.01, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 125)
MP+2: 47.5 BB (VPIP: 15.09, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.64, Hands: 2,074)
CO: 63.33 BB (VPIP: 15.69, PFR: 13.09, 3Bet Preflop: 6.26, Hands: 2,129)
BTN: 46.5 BB (VPIP: 21.38, PFR: 17.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.57, Hands: 2,656)
SB: 59.03 BB (VPIP: 22.20, PFR: 19.32, 3Bet Preflop: 6.40, Hands: 28,319)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ K♥

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2.5 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q♦ T♦ J♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn: (14.5 BB, 2 players) J♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 7.5 BB, Hero calls 7.5 BB

River: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 32.5 BB and is all-in, fold

BTN wins 29.5 BB

Villain is reg, TunicaTerror (he is slightly losing pre rb last year with avg bi 45).
Stats from 9-7 handed: VPIP 18 / PFR 14 / AF 1.61 / 3bet 5 / fold to cbet 15/28 / 2k hands

I think Im relatively fucked against his range on this flop. His preflop calling range might be smth like ~ 77-JJ, AJs+, AKo, probably KQs, QJs, JTs, mb some weaker SC or pp like 66, Im not sure.

Useing flopzilla, I can see the range 77-JJ, JTs+ AJs+ AQo hit on the flop str8 in 26%, set in 9.6%, two pairs in 6.5%. I.e. in 42%, villain has better hand than me OTF. Also, with KK Im blocking some str8 draws and Ax will not help villian but give me a str8, so I decided to use KK like bluffcatcher. If villain will check OTF, I can start value betting on the turn.

Ideas?


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3 replies
Gavron23
Joined: 26.05.2010

my humble two cents - I think there is still some value in cbetting here despite the fact that his range hits this flop very hard.
Also another downside to checking flop - you folded to 3 barrels unimproved and you are at the top of your check/calling range with an overpair(barring slowplayed straight) and you still had to fold river. And if you fold that you will of course also fold all other pairs that you checked back, thus giving him ( if he is paying attention) quite profitable chance of 3 barreling on almost any board runout..


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Beatlemanic
Joined: 14.10.2010

Originally posted by Gavron23
my humble two cents - I think there is still some value in cbetting here despite the fact that his range hits this flop very hard.
Also another downside to checking flop - you folded to 3 barrels unimproved and you are at the top of your check/calling range with an overpair(barring slowplayed straight) and you still had to fold river. And if you fold that you will of course also fold all other pairs that you checked back, thus giving him ( if he is paying attention) quite profitable chance of 3 barreling on almost any board runout..

yep, I agree that this line is exploitable; but Im not able to find enought combos which villain will bluff - I'm not sure if he will go 3 barell bluff with some weak hand with showdown equity like ATs; he may by 3 barrel bluffing T9s, 99 and 88, but its only small part of his range imo.


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lets assume he isnt good enough to barrel ATC against your line (which he should). If we assume he is very ABC your c/c line is fine, looking for 2 small streets to c/c and folding to a river 3barrel (unlikely he will 3 barrel with worse than your hand).

bet/fold flop is also ok, this line you can rep value much easier than checking and you can just c/f the turn or go for a block bet line on turn.

tough spot


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