700$ wcoop kno A7s spot

Hi,

Players would most likely shove wider on progressive KO, but I doubt BB is there too wide.
There are enough other short stacks, which you can bust and against BB direct shove you would likely folded. So I would stick to original plan and b/f preflop. You should find better spot to bust someone and get more money.

best regards,

Hi all,

I think he's reasonably wide here actually and would pay him off in this high-bounty spot.

Can someone do the math please what range we should call of considering bounty etc cos idk how to do it

My thought was cos we r break evenish in side pot vs BB and we have decent eq vs reasobable shoving range ( like pp, 2 face cards, Ax) and considering big bounty he might shove even wider so i really dont know math wise and future edge/eq in tournament what should we do and what range we should call off here

Will do later. You need to customly do this spot by assigning a value to the chips, and comparing this to the value of the bounty.

I think we'll find that we should be spewing quite a bit here to try get that bounty.

Hi,

I would approach this way:
Pot should be 89872 and you need to call 48469. You get 1.85 to 1, which means you need to have 35% equity against BB shove (and maybe BU) range.

Even against top 10% your equity is still 37%; against top 25% overall 47%

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 37.69% 69,559,184 5,461,347
10% 62.31% 116,757,517 5,461,347

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 42.10% 111,425,697 16,483,026
15% 57.90% 156,333,741 16,483,026

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 45.63% 168,783,604 21,862,263
20% 54.37% 203,184,053 21,862,263

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 47.51% 225,664,867 25,378,623
25% 52.49% 250,661,582 25,378,623

I´m not sure how much we should consider it is 3-way pot, since you basically always win at least 37% sidepot,. which is 42k

Our overall equity in 3-way should be around 25-30%

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 29.42% 164,628 25,619
20% 36.29% 207,297 22,645
25% 34.29% 196,415 20,390

So likely it is b/c, if
- you assume BU is shoving reasonable wide and
- you assume BB is wider than 20%

To me it is not worth risking my whole tournament, if I end up being against very tight ranges.

Originally posted by Kaitz20
Hi,

I would approach this way:
Pot should be 89872 and you need to call 48469. You get 1.85 to 1, which means you need to have 35% equity against BB shove (and maybe BU) range.

Even against top 10% your equity is still 37%; against top 25% overall 47%

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 37.69% 69,559,184 5,461,347
10% 62.31% 116,757,517 5,461,347

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 42.10% 111,425,697 16,483,026
15% 57.90% 156,333,741 16,483,026

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 45.63% 168,783,604 21,862,263
20% 54.37% 203,184,053 21,862,263

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 47.51% 225,664,867 25,378,623
25% 52.49% 250,661,582 25,378,623

I´m not sure how much we should consider it is 3-way pot, since you basically always win at least 37% sidepot,. which is 42k

Our overall equity in 3-way should be around 25-30%

Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad7d 29.42% 164,628 25,619
20% 36.29% 207,297 22,645
25% 34.29% 196,415 20,390

So likely it is b/c, if
- you assume BU is shoving reasonable wide and
- you assume BB is wider than 20%

To me it is not worth risking my whole tournament, if I end up being against very tight ranges.

so if i understand u right the only argument of not calling off here that u r giving it is that ur valuing ur tournament life lot more then the facts
- its progresive bounty and people r calling off super light (so our 20bb stack is like 10bb stack in regular MTTs to give u ex. how wide people were

next hand

- avg stack is 100k we have 48k left
- bounty from shorty is 1k$ (500$ net payout if we kno him) and 130 left are paid ~870 with pay jumps 70-80$ every 10 people so to compensate for villains bounty we should end up like #70 or better
- fact that BB will most likely have ALL Ax hands and ALL 2 face cards combos in his range so imo even if BB is like tighish due the fact that he has 100bb stack and 500$ net bounty to win he will shove at least wide as this
Equity Win Tie
MP2 49.65% 45.08% 4.57% { Ad7d }
MP3 50.35% 45.78% 4.57% { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo }

i'm really not sure about about should we call off or not but more i analyze this spot more i'm is the call and more i think AINEC

Hi,

I agree that consider possible payout from BU you likely can´t b/f. BB is isolating him with his stack too often with worse hands than A7s

best regards,

Alrighty. Before I start the math: A7s is definitely a call. The math was intended for the purpose of figuring out our range in this spot.

I'm going to make some leaping assumptions about stuff and justify why they are OK (even if certainly imperfect). We start with 7500 chips in this tournament, and we have 53469 chips. The tournament is worth 332.5$. So the value of our stack is 2370$ here (or 2134$ if we raise/fold and have 48144 chips). This is of course very loose and a ICM calculation would be more accurate especially in the money already, however we have to consider that getting more chips will increase our chances of getting knockouts, and getting less chips will decrease that chance.

So we're dealt XX, raise, get shoved on by 2 players. If we fold, our EV is 0. I will assign shortstack a range of 20%, and bigstack a conservative range of 10% to start.

In this instance, shortstack will win the hand 30.77% of the time, bigstack will scoop 40.04% of the time. Ignoring card removal, when shortstack wins the hand we will still win the side pot 38.31% of the time against the big stack.

If shortstack wins, and we win against bigstack, our chip stack becomes 41842 or 1854.67$ for a loss of 279$ from raise/folding.

If we scoop, our chip stack becomes 53144 + 53144 + 32223 + 1250 + 2925 = 142686 or $6324.60 AND we pick up 500$ extra for a total of 6824.60$.

Here are the options of what can happen:

Shortstack wins, we lose to bigstack: -2134$ * 0.3077 * 0.6169 = -405.08$
Shortstack wins, we win against bigstack: -279$ * 0.3077 * 0.3831 = -32.89$
We scoop: 0.2494 * 6824.60$ = +1702.06$
Bigstack scoops: -2134$ * 0.4004 = -854.45$

Total sum: +409.64$ for a call.

What's the worst hand we can call here vs this ridiculous range? (note that although we may have a correct call-off, we may be spewing $$ with the initial open! shortstack will not always put it in!)

5d4d: 26.54% to scoop, 32.74% shortstack wins, 33.44% to win sidepot, bigstack scoops 40.73%

Shortstack wins, we lose to bigstack: -2134$ * 0.3274 * 0.6856 = -479.01$
Shortstack wins, we win against bigstack: -279$ * 0.3274 * 0.3344 = -30.55$
We scoop: 0.2654 * 6824.60$ = +1811.25$
Bigstack scoops: -2134$ * 0.4073 = -869.18$

Total sum: +432.51 on a call.

Kh2d: 19.15% to scoop, 35.67% shortstack wins, 28.94% to win sidepot, bigstack scoops 45.19%

Shortstack wins, we lose to bigstack: -2134$ * 0.3567 * 0.7106 = -540.91$
Shortstack wins, we win against bigstack: -279$ * 0.3567 * 0.2894 = -28.80$
We scoop: 0.1915 * 6824.60$ = +1306.91$
Bigstack scoops: -2134$ * 0.4519 = -964.35$

Total sum: -227.15$ on a call.

Generally looking at the numbers, you will see that we need to really consider the shortstack's range with a call. For us to gain the benefits of the progressive super knock-out format, we need to have a hand that fares well in the 3-way situation and will beat shortstack more often. We don't need to worry about our match-up against the bigstack as much (or indeed our tournament life). As always, if you have any further questions please ask.