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6max bubble vs fishes

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benaars
Joined: 03.06.2010

Hello,
Here the bigstack is a huge fish 36/10 over 400 hands. We are on the bubble as a midstack and face a minraise from this fish. If he'd pushed I would have to fold here according to ICM, but since this is a minraise I was thinking I might have some fold equity + KQs is quite a good hand. Whats your thoughts here?
*Villain hasn't encountered a 3bet yet (from my stats)

PKR, $20 Buy-in (1,000/2,000 blinds, 200 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 8,350 (4.2 bb)
Hero (BB): 14,988 (7.5 bb)
BTN: 36,662 (18.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q K
BTN raises to 4,000, SB folds, Hero raises to 12,000, BTN calls 8,000

Flop: (25,600) K 8 Q (2 players)
Hero bets 2,788 and is all-in, BTN calls 2,788

Turn: (31,176) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (31,176) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)


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3 replies
kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

I love it. KQs is a powerhouse and as you say-pushing is gonna be minus EV(if we have no FE pre and his range is relatively tight), but you are getting insane odds and given how often we are gonna have the best hand when we hit, I'd love to flat. You are getting better than 2:1 pot odds and this hand is gonna hit prolly like 50% of the time a powerful hand-33% a pair, 10% FD, you have a few % for 2 pair a few for trips, gutter and 2 over...You play great vs his Ax hands and pairs.


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benaars
Joined: 03.06.2010

kurrkabin

Well you are saying that flatting is a good option, but in fact I did 3bet there hoping for some FE. Dont you think 7,5bb is a little bit too less for flatting there? What if we don't hit or hit poorly? (backdoor FD + 2 overs or something like that)


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Nah...I am ok with it. We are getting direct odds. If we don't hit, ofc, it's not great, but we are still gonna win the hand sometimes postflop. He's not gonna bet all flops, we can hit turn, river, hand can go checked down and we win at showdown, etc, etc.

Look at it this way-if you can't make it profitable pre due to his r/c range(say he's raise/calling A2o), but your hand hits postflop hard-like 50% of the time, why would u fold getting insane odds? You can flat and make it fit or fold, which will be profitable, you can 3bet ship which will be unprofitable, or you can fold which is also not optimal-as then you fold KQs getting insane odds.


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