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NL100 PF BU AA, river decision

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alphamonkey
Joined: 27.12.2013

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1, $0.20 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $102.32 (102.3 bb)
BB: $370.78 (370.8 bb)
MP: $107.52 (107.5 bb)
CO: $112.01 (112 bb)
Hero (BTN): $163.40 (163.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A♠ A♥
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($7.50) 8♦ T♥ Q♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.50, BB calls $4.50

Turn: ($16.50) K♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.50, BB calls $10.50

River: ($37.50) 7♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

Villain regular unknown.

Have we value bet on the river ? what size ?

thanks !!!


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1 reply
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Pretty clear value bet if you used min-raise sizing PF. He would have a ton of Q2o+ combos. some of which will be forced to call the River. Since you 3Xed it here, his PF range is gonna be significantly tighter.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8dThQcKd7c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.11% 62.11% 0.00% { AhAs }
MP3 37.89% 37.89% 0.00% { AJs-ATs, K8s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, AJo-ATo, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T9o }

Way too thin, given the Turn card. You only have 1 more street and you should either b/f T or ck T bet or call R.

Of course maybe he raises the Turn with some straights or sets but your equity probably won't rise above 70% and you would only be able to make a really small bet anyway.


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