NL 5 bluff that went wrong

Hi FizzBa,

I don't like bluffing here versus a fish.

If you want to bluff bet that flop after the preflop raiser checks.

And once you got called you should give up on your hand. Nothing folds turn/river. Villain can easily check back an Ax that doesn't fold on river.

I don't much like the pre-flop call here. CO and (especially) BTN have high VPIPs, so you look likely to end up in the sandwich post-flop. UTG could contibet, and you'll pick that up if you hit the flop, but UTG looks pretty passive. I suppose what you hope will happen is that BTN calls, you hit the flop, BTN reraises you with top-pair and you steal his stack. But does he do that often enough for the call to pay off? Also, you lose most of your stack if anyone oversets. It just seems to me that you've got yourself into a horribly messy situation, when you'll often get nothing more if you hit the flop and you're in danger of being beaten when you do reach all in.

There's something to be said for a raise here, because CO & BTN are less likely to cold call a reraised pot and UTG looks pretty loose. Plus if he calls your reraise with something like AK, you have decent equity and you're in position and presenting a good hand. Obviously you would have to fold a reraise though, and looking at the 3B numbers for CO, BTN & BB, I would be worried. So on balance, unless I had tight table image, I would fold it.

I think having called pre-flop, you're then pretty committed to playing the hand honestly. What range are trying to present by check raising? Your pre-flop call makes it unlikely that anyone will put you on AA, KK or AK, so the only "good" hands you could be expected to have would be the suited aces, KQs or KJs. Of these, the suited aces are far more likely (particularly after card removal), but then you're asking Villain to put you on 2 pairs, and why would you check that after the flop? It's difficult to understand what story you're trying to tell.

Also, the reason that check-raise works so well with strong hands is that Villain gets overattached to his bet and calls with weaker hands. You may be crediting Villain with too much intelligence when you expect him to fold to your bluff.

If Villain has an A, then he's unlikely to fold whatever you do, and there must be lots of As in his calling range here. Even if he called with a pair, he's probably beating you. It doesn't seem all that likely he would be bluffing here.

I'm afraid that your river bluff just doesn't make any sense. 8♦ can't have improved your hand. I find it difficult to imagine what hand Villain might fold here (edit: actually, he could have QJ or even JT, but it seems a long-shot). He can't be bluffing at this point, because he's not generating any fold equity.

Originally posted by Lathdari
I don't much like the pre-flop call here. CO and (especially) BTN have high VPIPs, so you look likely to end up in the sandwich post-flop. UTG could contibet, and you'll pick that up if you hit the flop, but UTG looks pretty passive. I suppose what you hope will happen is that BTN calls, you hit the flop, BTN reraises you with top-pair and you steal his stack. But does he do that often enough for the call to pay off? Also, you lose most of your stack if anyone oversets. It just seems to me that you've got yourself into a horribly messy situation, when you'll often get nothing more if you hit the flop and you're in danger of being beaten when you do reach all in.

There's something to be said for a raise here, because CO & BTN are less likely to cold call a reraised pot and UTG looks pretty loose. Plus if he calls your reraise with something like AK, you have decent equity and you're in position and presenting a good hand. Obviously you would have to fold a reraise though, and looking at the 3B numbers for CO, BTN & BB, I would be worried. So on balance, unless I had tight table image, I would fold it.

I think having called pre-flop, you're then pretty committed to playing the hand honestly. What range are trying to present by check raising? Your pre-flop call makes it unlikely that anyone will put you on AA, KK or AK, so the only "good" hands you could be expected to have would be the suited aces, KQs or KJs. Of these, the suited aces are far more likely (particularly after card removal), but then you're asking Villain to put you on 2 pairs, and why would you check that after the flop? It's difficult to understand what story you're trying to tell.

Also, the reason that check-raise works so well with strong hands is that Villain gets overattached to his bet and calls with weaker hands. You may be crediting Villain with too much intelligence when you expect him to fold to your bluff.

If Villain has an A, then he's unlikely to fold whatever you do, and there must be lots of As in his calling range here. Even if he called with a pair, he's probably beating you. It doesn't seem all that likely he would be bluffing here.

I'm afraid that your river bluff just doesn't make any sense. 8♦ can't have improved your hand. I find it difficult to imagine what hand Villain might fold here (edit: actually, he could have QJ or even JT, but it seems a long-shot). He can't be bluffing at this point, because he's not generating any fold equity.

great and detailed post, thanks!

I agree with you completely on the river bluff it really doesn't make any sense and I shouldn't have done that.

about my call, this UTG is not very tight, and I think it seems plausible that I call with AK or AQs , or even maybe KQs but yeah I probably do give them too much credit.

PS, shortly after posting my comment above, I did almost the same thing as you did on the river and wasted $4 or so. Must resist the temptation to extend bad bluffs.