KK 3-bet against raise on Q turn?

Originally posted by pcbeem
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Stats villian: VPIP 17 PFR 13 3-bet 7.3 AF 2.3 WTSD 33 and W$SD 61; 3,3K hands

So he is a quite reasonable player who is a bit loose.
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Surely, you mean "So he is a quite reasonable player who is a bit tight" ♦.

As the hand plays out, his most likely holding is, by far, AQ (and KQ). Big pairs QQ+ may cap preflop. What is his 4-betting frequency? Then he has 99, 88 that may decide to delay until turn, but I think 3-betting turn here is best. Against (almost) all 2-pair holdings you have 8 outs.

It's close and from my intuition and my analysis and experience, i would deny 3betting. Lets check his range. In terms of our assumptions i'd also deny that he'd cap QQ+ preflop. I dont know how opponents play on these limits but many follow just the call to 3bet strategy and dont have a cappingrange oop. so i'd just discount QQ+ at aboug 25%. If he's a bit loose, i'd add JTo 1/4 in his range and Jts 100% and take 44 88 99 100% in his range.

unfortunately equilab right now isnt working here since the rangescreen is off the monitor and i can drag'em in. argh!!! ok lets do it manually and count 2 Combos QQ, 3 combos AA, 6 Combos JT, 9 combos 44 88 99. So all those summed up we get 20 combinations of better hands.

If we account now the other side of worse hands we get QTo 6 Combos (50% discounted since normally its a fold at this position) , we have 12 Combos QJ, 6 Combos KQ and we have 12 Combos AQ. So we get 36 Combos of worse hands. Since we just win 1BB against worse and lose 2BB against better hands, we need to have him 2/3 of his hands to be worse hands. 36 combos worse hands in relation to 56 total makes about 65%.

your equation includes that we did discount QQ and AA off his range. the more he tends to entirely call his openraising-range, the worse the relation gets to your disfavor and unless hes got AA, he'll certainly cap all the better hands. its kinda close. certainly ok to 3bet but not a mistake to just call down either!