NL200 J6s BW

imo he has really easy call on river with any overpair, 8x and he has it nearly allways. So imo river bluff from exploitative point is not good with that size, or If I would bet I would overbet. And since your range is heavily polarized and his very condensed, then imo it makes sense to shove. and when you shove, since you are likely bluff heavy in most spots as I can see from hands, then you would also be closer to correct bluff:value ratio

Hi,

flop and turn look fine, although I'd bet bigger turn.

River, we have to be very careful because it's very easy for us to be overbluffing this spot. So, assuming villain almost never has boats (which is generally true) than our value range should be flushes and FHs, mostly 7x.

Your bet size is wrong, as ginger said our range is very polarized, so betting less than 75-80% pot sounds iffy to me.

So, let's assume we bet pot size river, that a value to bluff ratio of 2 to 1.

So, value combos 74:

A7s,K7s,Q7s,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,QcJc,KcTc,QcTc,JcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c,Tc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c,Qc8c,Jc8c,Tc8c,9c8c,Ac6c,Kc6c,Qc6c,Jc6c,Tc6c,9c6c,8c6c,7c6c,Ac5c,Kc5c,Qc5c,Jc5c,Tc5c,8c5c,7c5c,6c5c,Ac4c,Kc4c,Qc4c,Jc4c,Tc4c,5c4c,Ac3c,Kc3c,Qc3c,Jc3c,Tc3c,Ac2c,Kc2c,Qc2c,Jc2c,Tc2c,A7o,K7o,Q7o,J7o,T7o

That means we should bluff around 37 combos.

Bluff combos 36 (starting with the worse hands that get to river):

J6s, T9s, T6s, JTo, T9o

So, J6s might be an okay bluff, but bet bigger. We have to be careful since we might get to the river also with a bunch of 9x besides T9.

So, take home message: it's a spot where a lot of Hero's draws missed and Villain will tend to bluffcatch, so we should not be overbluffing this spot at all. And it's very easy for Hero to be tempted to bluff since he has so many air combos, we have to be very careful. It would be even worse if the flush didn't hit.