Value raise turn TPTK ? too thin river?

Preflop

std

Flop

as u're HU ip with the lead, cbet cannot be bad.

Now it's true that we absolutely missed the board, and have very low/poor improvings situations next streets.
Can check and wait for backdoor (spades, straights) or at least top pair.

but cbet still ok.
Not a spot where we are emmerdés if we get c/raised, and could tranquillement make a fold.

Moreover, this is a spot that doesn't smash his defending range too much (low cards and low connected boards) even if he can have some sweety hands like 9TJx + FD, DP J79T.

If he's not a super aggro happy c/raiseur, he wouldn't c/r tons here.
And could call will some hands that have equity, but oop will have difficulties to c/c lots of streets (turns) when we'll barrel... and we can barrel some turns with some equity(+FE so) coz there're some turns that would improve us (A/Q/K for TPTK + DP max draw + nut GS, spades for the bdnfd) and we could barrel with good FE + some equity

... well that said it's true that we highly missed the flop, but imo HU ip w the lead it's better to cbet maybe a little more than a little not enough.

Turn

seems me good.
Could have everything here : draws, weak DP, strong DP, Axxx + draws.
we're making value/protection against all drawing hands / p+drawing hands, and having a good equity left against his DP (with 2OC + GS to make top DP or nut straight), and maybe some FE vs those hands (J7xx, A7xx maybe, Axxx + low FD etc...)

more over, his strange sizing in a board quite drawy (even if could be worst) can be interprété with history (want to buy a river low cost ?)

River

tranquille check back here imo.

we're not valuing bust draws obv.
If AJxx called u turn imo it would'nt fold here

only value u can get here is imo some Axxx well kicked that could leveled themselves on this misseddraw river, but it's marginal

i would check back almost all the time here

Hi,

turn raise seems fine, even though calling is quite standard here as well. But i feel like raising is good, he looks weak and he will fold a lot. Honestly i think river is a check back. Can't see many weaker hands call. Like OsCardozo said, apart from the random Axxx here we are really not getting value, and we are not making a better hand fold.

Regards,

Skod