NL100 - A4o: playing AXo from SB against players that defend a lot.

total war with no equity OOP sounds costly

it's a marginal open, it's going to make marginal money, by far the most of it is when villain folds preflop.

When you see a flop, you need to realize about 30% equity for it to be worth opening, hand should have about 50%. So it's borderline, but doable playing straightforward. You could just fold preflop. Even if you play really it well, it's only worth about 1/4 of a bb.

I dont think you can apply this "30% equity ralization" to know if the hand is +EV in general. Imo it is super approximated estimation which is hardly applied in practice. Especially not vs this guy.
It doesnt matter if you cf too often vs him with this hand and thus you dont realize your equity that often, if when you hit and barrel 3 streets big he calls you down light.
My default strategy vs such guys would be give up mostly when I dont hit, since I dont have +EV bluffs, and if I have draw to bet flop and overbet turn, or bet flop and turn, and overbet river. If he comes on each street with so weak range, he will have trouble defending, so he will have to ovefold. If he doesnt, then you will benefit a lot with having value heavy overbet range, and playing for stacks when you hit TPGK+

Originally posted by GingerKid
I dont think you can apply this "30% equity ralization" to know if the hand is +EV in general. Imo it is super approximated estimation which is hardly applied in practice. Especially not vs this guy.

its just maths, not an estimation

just put in the amount you win in bb when he folds, the amount you lose when 3b's and then come up with a % of the pot you have to win when he calls.

in this case (assuming fold to 3b of 50% and 3b of 15%), if you can win about 30% of the pot on average when u see a flop, it's going to be slightly profitable, and if you can only win 20% of the pot it's going to be slightly minus EV.
So if you think you can do it, do it, if not don't. that simple

This is a pretty easy open vs someone who folds 47% from BB. By the way when you post spots like these you should also include how often he flats vs 3bets not just folds. If you are playing dynamic ranges, meaning you make some quick adjustments in your head while playing, typically against guys with high 3bet and low flat hands with blockers are more important, typically against guys that flat a lot and don't 3bet as much, suited hands will perform better. It's not an exact science but a starting point on how to pick hands.

GK, Jules is talking about equity realization which is now commonly used to determine how much the hand is worth. If you ask 10 different people about it the all might come up with different answers. The equity realization number is higher if the guy is passive, lower if he is aggressive obv makes sense. If I'm reading correctly Jules thinks the hand only has 50% equity realization here, so like he said you would multiply for example 15% (the times he 3bets) that's how much you lose when he 3bets given you plan to fold, multiply 47% by 1, that's how often you win the 1bb when he folds. And then you just have to see how much of the $6 pot you have to win to do better than folding. I always open all Axo fwiw.