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NL100 99 BW 3betpot on paired

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Majku99
Joined: 22.02.2012
Elite Grinder

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $108.90 (108.9 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $104.17 (104.2 bb)
UTG+2: $40.08 (40.1 bb)
MP1: $100 (100 bb)
MP2: $113.61 (113.6 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $120.64 (120.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 9
6 folds, Hero raises to $2.18, SB raises to $8.50, BB folds, Hero calls $6.32

Flop: ($18) 6 Q Q (2 players)
SB bets $8.59, Hero calls $8.59

Turn: ($35.18) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $22.39, Hero calls $22.39

River: ($79.96) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Results:

Spoiler

$79.96 pot ($2.80 rake)
Final Board: 6 Q Q 2 T
SB showed T K and won $77.16 ($37.68 net)
Hero mucked 9 9 and lost (-$39.48 net)


SBvs BTN 3bet/cc/Ft4bet 8%,6%,55,%,

HEy

Pre I see him like this: .
I call here

On flop I think he cbets all suited cards with BFD and some BSD. On turn I continues betting his FD,KK+, maybe JJ? When he checks river he has KK+ maybe JJ, some Qx, some random air. I think that shove vs his check would be great because without AQ and checking all his Qx I have about 63% FE with AQ it's about 50% so it's still good. I don't raise flop or turn, so I should bet all in here with my entire range( maybe without QJs,KQ) to compensate it's value percentage. What do you think about this?
TY


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4 replies
GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007
BlackMember

I think call turn is very marginal, but ok as buttom of range. River i think shove is good, it is buttom of your range, also on that river
he hardly has many worse hands in range, also you can rep decently good Qx and flushes. IT is question though if he is able to fold on river his weaker Qx, KK+, since you are agro player and can turn hadns into bluff


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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009
PokerStrategist

Hand is probably fine. I think turn call can easily be very marginal, perhaps losing unless he his pretty aggro in these spots.

I understand what gingerkid is saying but I'm not sure which better hands are playing like this which would fold river to jam. Not sure if he'd ever fold a QX and I don't know if he has KK+ in his range that much. If he ever checks flushes (which imo would be a legitimate part of his 2barrel for value range) then the effectiveness of a river bluff is greatly reduced.


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Majku99 Topic starter
Majku99
Joined: 22.02.2012
Elite Grinder

Not so aggressive by looking at my stats. So I don't expect adjustments in this direction. But w34z3l is right It's a bit guessing game what is he hiding in his river range


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007
BlackMember

Originally posted by w34z3l
Hand is probably fine. I think turn call can easily be very marginal, perhaps losing unless he his pretty aggro in these spots.

I understand what gingerkid is saying but I'm not sure which better hands are playing like this which would fold river to jam. Not sure if he'd ever fold a QX and I don't know if he has KK+ in his range that much. If he ever checks flushes (which imo would be a legitimate part of his 2barrel for value range) then the effectiveness of a river bluff is greatly reduced.

Yeah I agree reg will likely not even barrel KK+ twice unless hero is huge station which he is not. Imo betting flop and turn with KK+ is overplay. So we should imo put him on Qx for value. So imo we can only expect to fold (just maybe) on river some Tx hands.
Also we cant put him on Tx hands, because ThXh is blocked, and he would have to be very bluff heavy on turn to bluff some offsuit Tx hands. So yeah, likely river check. Vs balanced guy, we will still win river some of the time, and vs this guy who is bluff heavy on turn, we should win river even more when he checks (unless he is too agro on river).


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