Plan B

Hi LordHorius,

I look forward to reading more in your blog. I think it's great that you found an area of study that you really enjoy - it will make a big difference in your life if you are able to do something you love. I started a blog a little over a year ago and it has been a great motivator for me to keep working on my game - much more fun to write about learning and success!

Have you added yourself to the https://forums.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=321631&page=1 yet?

Good luck at the tables!

Got a mild minus yesterday and a mild plus today (WTS 13% W$SD% 33% speaks for itself). Plenty of hand to analyze but caught cold and the closer it is to evening the harder it is to think.

Monthly goals:
1)Finally make that personal webpage
2)Finish research proposals for conference.
3)Finish the details on the paper. And write it however chaotically but in tex.
4)Get silver status and gain access to analysis section of forum.

Oh and another goal is to make OBS work for games in full screen, need to get ready to stream some games (Legacy of the void beta when I get it)

Streaming is figured out. Mind effects of the cold are over so could play a bit and finally a significant difference +3.45$

From there I have got a question on standard situation

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.51)
BB ($2.29)
UTG ($2.01)
UTG+1 ($5.16)
UTG+2 ($0.80)
Hero ($2)
CO ($2)
BTN ($0.78)

UTG+2 posts $0.02

Dealt to Hero J♥ J♠

fold, fold, UTG+2 checks, Hero raises to $0.10, CO calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.25) 4♣ 8♠ 5♥

Hero bets $0.18, CO calls $0.18

TURN ($0.61) 4♣ 8♠ 5♥ 5♣

Hero bets $0.38, CO calls $0.38

RIVER ($1.37) 4♣ 8♠ 5♥ 5♣ 9♥

Hero checks?

Hi Ramble,

I am on the map now.

Good luck as well!

Played another session, small minus analysis still awaits though
Visited evaluation section of forum to see how does my evaluation go.
Content for personal page is ready, application for conference is ready. All what is left is to write up the results.

Merry Christmas everyone!
Mine went well, had a really long lunch with colleagues.
And got a new task from Advisor: reading another chapter of his book.

So here are updated goals:
1)Write up results
2)Look for mistakes in advisor's book
3)Gain silver status

Good luck with your updated goals!

Merry Christmas!

Glad you've sorted out OBS and looking forward to see your update on Silver status and the rest of the goals.

I'm just a beginner, so regarding hand I can say that I would personally check there, yes. It seems that CO calls you kind of a loosely and three of a kind is IMO only viable threat; 67 is unreal, where with ToK I think he would play a little more aggressively (it should be on flop I think, unless it's from 9s, but that would mean he has overpair which is that part of the risk, since he is supposed to call with Overpair (I think) and obviously on the River having the edge. He could also fish for flush, it's just... and going with A2s/A5s let's say would imply aggression from him on the Turn as I believe. I'd play Check/Fold, but looking forward to someone more experienced replying - interesting hand.

Found mistake while writing up. I needed a fibration which cannot be transformed into another one and the example I have had does not work. I need to make it more singular and that is going to be a hell of a fun but should be doable.

Stopping with holidays. Trying to get sleep pattern and routine is order. Watching micro-grinder series and will play for an hour today. Next time the plan is to analyze today's session and then play another session.

With writing up from last year there was a problem. It is solvable but it requires very careful examination.

Saving up a hand for analysis, that is the first one I will do tomorrow. And then I will see if I want to post it.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($4.02)
BB ($2.45)
UTG ($2.33)
UTG+1 ($1.19)
UTG+2 ($3.52)
MP1 ($2.37)
CO ($2.14)
Hero ($3.43)

Dealt to Hero A♥ K♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.06, SB calls $0.05, fold

FLOP ($0.14) T♥ K♥ 5♠

SB checks, Hero bets $0.10, SB calls $0.10

TURN ($0.34) T♥ K♥ 5♠ 4♠

SB checks, Hero bets $0.24, SB calls $0.24

RIVER ($0.82) T♥ K♥ 5♠ 4♠ A♣

SB checks, Hero bets $0.48, SB raises to $3.58, Hero folds

SB wins $1.72

During playing I was desperately looking for a reason to call river while instinct was to fold.

But more careful examination is in order to see the ranges. I recall my opponent being reasonable and not cold calling a lot on preflop. I didn't have a lot of hands so there is some margin of error.
This is how I imagine his cold call range:
99-22, AQs-A7s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KQo (148 hands)
Some of those hands may go into a 3bet some of those may be folded. I think some discounts on KTs, QTs, AQs are in order for that reason.

Question 1
Is it a good continuation bet on such a board assuming I do not have a hand? On this flop there are 132 hands.
The answer may depend on whether I hold ace of hearts.
AhQh-Ah7h, KTs+, QJs, QTs, JTs, KQo, ATo, 55 will not fold T9s, AQ, AJ may not fold as well. Worst case scenario: there is resistance with 81 hand which brings us to 37.9% fold equity. Bet of my size requires 41.6% fold chance therefore it is not enough. Discounts and likely folds of AQ and AJ make this bet barely profitable. if opponent cold calls preflop with QJo bluff bet flop is misplaced.

Now lets assume that I hold ace of hearts: that leaves 67 hands out of 118 hands for resistance which brings us to 43% fold chance on worst case scenario. And this is assuming out opponent never raises flop with complete garbage.

Summary:
continuation bet will be unprofitable or barely profitable
having ace of hearts in hand makes bet better

Question 2
Suppose I made continuation bet on flop. Should I bet turn?
Assume worse: AhQh-Ah7h, KTs+, QJs, QTs, JTs, KQo, ATo, 55 resisted
Note that we should discount 55 and KT because it is very likely that our opponent will raise flop for defense. We may need to discount some flush draws as well since opponent may raise flop. At this point there are 3 possible sets, I will leave 2. And I will leave only 1 KTs. I will put Ah7h, AhQh on raise flop as well that leaves us with
55 (2), KTs (1), Ah8h, Ah9h, AhJh, AT (12), KQo (12), JTs(3), QJs(4) 37 total.
Resistance is expected from 55, KTs, KQo, QhJh, AhJh (17) for sure.
Possibly Ah8h, Ah9h, QJs (3)
Unlikely AT
If there was a call with QJo then that as well. Overall it seems that bluff bet on turn is actually good.

Now onto river and the actual hand.
We can expect our opponent to have 55(2), KTs(1), busted draws (AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h) are discounted since I have ace of hearts, QJs (1-4) may still be here, KQo(9)
55 and QJ are stronger, KTs is weaker, KQo will not call therefore I should not make that river bet.

Hand proved to be more interesting than I initially thought, I will put it into hand evaluation after all.

Saving up for analysis:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2.50)
BB ($6.79)
UTG ($1.65)
UTG+1 ($1.68)
UTG+2 ($2.61)
MP1 ($1.57)
MP2 ($2.41)
CO ($2.18)
BTN ($1.57)

Dealt to Hero 4♥ 4♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, MP2 raises to $0.06, fold, BTN calls $0.06, Hero calls $0.05, fold

FLOP ($0.20) 7♦ 2♦ 7♠

Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.12, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.12

TURN ($0.44) 7♦ 2♦ 7♠ A♥

Hero checks, MP2 checks

RIVER ($0.44) 7♦ 2♦ 7♠ A♥ Q♣

Hero checks, MP2 bets $0.36, Hero folds

MP2 wins $0.42

Question: call flop, bet turn?

Missed value on turn?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($2.02)
BB ($2.45)
UTG ($1.47)
Hero ($2.26)
UTG+2 ($2.19)
MP1 ($2.29)
MP2 ($0.78)
CO ($3.33)
BTN ($2)

Dealt to Hero A♥ A♣

UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.08, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.06

FLOP ($0.27) 9♥ 3♥ 9♣

UTG checks, Hero bets $0.19, BTN calls $0.19, UTG folds

TURN ($0.65) 9♥ 3♥ 9♣ 6♥

Hero checks, BTN checks

RIVER ($0.65) 9♥ 3♥ 9♣ 6♥ 9♦

Hero bets $0.32, BTN calls $0.32

BTN shows J♥ J♦
(Pre 18%, Flop 8.4%, Turn 4.5%)

Hero shows A♥ A♣
(Pre 82%, Flop 91.6%, Turn 95.5%)

Hero wins $1.24

Finally done with writing up dimension \geq 4. Found mistakes and had to change proof but it works.
Dimension 3 next and there will be a lot of changes because of a big hole in a proof I have found. There is a way around but, as example above suggests, until I write it i cannot be sure.

Broke 60 dollar mark. Will start transition to NL5 at 65. Plan is to do the following:
Open one table of NL5 and 5 of NL2. Once I get below 60 I get back to NL2. Once I go above 70 I play 2 tables of NL5 and 4 of NL2. Aggressive BR management should be compensated by some flexibility

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.02(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.70)
BB ($2.58)
Hero ($2)
UTG+1 ($2.03)
CO ($2.18)
BTN ($3.08)

Dealt to Hero Q♥ A♦

Hero raises to $0.06, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.04

FLOP ($0.13) T♦ 8♥ Q♣

BB checks, Hero bets $0.10, BB raises to $0.26, Hero calls $0.16

TURN ($0.65) T♦ 8♥ Q♣ T♠

BB bets $0.56, Hero calls? $0.56

RIVER ($1.77) T♦ 8♥ Q♣ T♠ 9♠

BB bets $1.70 (AI), Hero folds?

Question: if I call turn do I have to call river? I do not think I should call river, should I call turn?

Oh, also I am at 67$ so it is time to have 1 table at NL5 from now on.

Gratz on NL5, and yeah I like a lot your plan with amount of NL5 tables regarding the bank.

Regarding hand; so I think (or rather speculate, heh) that important information there is that on the flop BB checks, then raises you. He calls you pre-flop, checks on the flop, followed by a raise (not 3 times however.. I consider this important)which makes me think he has a strong pair, with a draw potential on the flop. Therefore he has already relatively strong hand, which can be improved in few ways, therefore his aggression with raise, as I suspect. On the turn we see 2nd T - here I'd be scared of threes (T), he could play passive with cards like what: KTo? We have nothing pre-flop, his check I consider that he wants to see size of your bet, but then seeing your really high bet, he is either bluffing (almost crazy to do it this way IMO) or having a monster. Turn IMO is a big warning; I'd fold it right away I think, but since we think of calling, then well ok, let's do it. AI on the river is not a joke, I'd pass on the previous corner since yeah your hand is very nice, but board offers so much more, and he knows same as you: no flush, we're talking about Top Pair, Threes, Straight, Full House - I'd look my hand and save loads of BBs just in case :f_cool:. My theory is that guy had KTo, and once he figured out you would play way different with AK, then having K he is safe, having T gives him strong enough hand to go AI, without seeing 2nd Q, just in case you'd have one, and you got no QQ since you would play it differently (IMO) - if he has such hand he has win-win scenario; if he bluffs you with some crazy low hand, then well it's just crazy... Speaking of being crazy if BB wouldn't act first on the River and I had to take the risk with pretty low hand, I could think of going AI (but only there and only because 9 showed up)...
So, I only thought about KTo, I know.. but honestly, with high pockets he wouldn't just call, with low ones he wouldn't play aggressive on the flop like that, board is entirely in high cards until River, with builds hands? With 8s doing raise on the flop? I doubt. With Qs that's possible, he has top pair, why not? Here we could think of KQ which explains his aggression the further it goes; either way it would lead me to folding Turn :(, but yeah that's just my thoughts.