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ovp + nut oesd on single raised pot

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OsCardozo
Joined: 29.05.2011

iPoker - €2 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: €456.69 (VPIP: 70.32, PFR: 13.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.78, Hands: 561)
Hero (CO): €585.75
BTN: €237.10 (VPIP: 43.37, PFR: 25.05, 3Bet Preflop: 10.71, Hands: 3,633)
SB: €254.08 (VPIP: 47.31, PFR: 17.44, 3Bet Preflop: 6.68, Hands: 3,625)

SB posts SB €1.00, BB posts BB €2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €3.00) Hero has 7♥ Q♥ K♣ K♦

Hero raises to €7.00, fold, SB calls €6.00, fold

Flop: (€16.00, 2 players) J♥ T♦ 6♠
SB checks, Hero bets €12.00, SB raises to €52.00, Hero raises to €172.00, SB raises to €247.08, Hero calls €75.08

Turn: (€510.16, 2 players) 6♥

River: (€510.16, 2 players) 7♠

Hero mucks 7♥ Q♥ K♣ K♦ (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 56%, Flop 34%, Turn 5%)
SB shows T♥ T♣ A♠ J♣ (Full House, Tens full of Sixes)
(Pre 44%, Flop 66%, Turn 95%)
SB wins €507.66

Villain kind of a fish not ultra bad, but gambler preflop and turn with ini (maybe a little less flop)

Préflop

std

Flop

Cbet std with ovp + nut oesd + bdfd

when he c/r pot here... erf I think i made quite a spew here.
as it's a single raised pot, we're 125bb deep, and the SPR is super big.

But he could do it wide it, since he got DP max (JTxx), maybe J6xx and T6xx to (if he got some GS with).
He would play wraps the same way here
And some TP w OCs + oesd (9QAx) he may could c/r too (but maybe not)

Holding myself QKKx, have got blockers on straight draws and he has himself less straight draws in his range, and more made hand (DP/sets)

I'm not well vs a set (but often > 35%).
~45%+ against DP max (depends on what cards are accompagning them. split/blockers etc...), and gome some FE vs some of them maybe

and crushing his wraps, combos p+straight draws etc...

but ye, he has more made hands than straight draws / combo p+draws, since I got myself KKQx (card removal except), and that deep maybe he wouldn't gamble so much draws

Need ~44% equity to gii EV+ here, ye seems me a little too optimistic to believe we got that vs his range

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: J♥ T♦ 6♠
7h Qh Kd Kc 44.57% (258,939 wins, 16,961 ties)
JT, J6, 9QK, AKQ, 66, TT, JJ, AJQ9, KQJ9, 789J 55.43% (324,100 wins, 16,961 ties)

we're not good, and it's quite wide as he got less straight draws and maybe wouldn't c/r pot some hands here (like AQ9)

but didn't want to fold here.
ye we got position, maybe call flop ip, but being on the turn with a 120€ pot with 180€ left, just hopping for 8 outs in one street (A and 9) or K (not 100% clean too), that I'm hitting 1/5 (or :heart: that give me a decent equity but wouldn't bring me ahead) and having no many implied on it (I'm ip, but my outs are just the scariest cards possible).

doesn't seems me that's optimal too
But in an other way, there're some scary turns (7 -> A), even if doesn't complete, it could scare him (but with SPR ~1.5 'm not sure he would often brake turn on semi-scary turns... moreover he could complete himself is he's wrapping), make it check, and I could have a free river.

really don't know what to do.
I don't like any options, so I gambled it.
But maybe fold would be the best


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

parts of your estimated range like AKQ, J6, KQ9 are really really optimistic; even hands like AQJ9 are just played as a c/c here as they are in a relatively way ahead way behind spot here. Another thing you are not thinking about here, is that if he has JTxx he never has bare JTxx when he raises here, but most like has some gutter at least, making his equity even better.

I would call the raise and play the turns; you can use your KK blockers if a Q hits for example, make him fold a set by the river; you can hit your bdfd. By just jamming you are making in my mind a - EV play, and what's even worse, you are making it easy for the guy that doesn't have position.

Regards,

Skod


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