[Closed] Ak Nl10 Fr

I like your line, but if you had expert stats you would see that he rarely goes to SD and when he does he usually wins. Seems like he had 22. I might consider folding against this guy on the river but I'm not sure with his 2.3 AF...

Originally posted by TheBrood
I like your line, but if you had expert stats you would see that he rarely goes to SD and when he does he usually wins. Seems like he had 22. I might consider folding against this guy on the river but I'm not sure with his 2.3 AF...

Yeah, I wrote in the beginning of the thread about his WTS. My line was no-brainer here everyone would play like this, the question is, how often does he have 22 here for me to call, I need to be favourite in 33% of the cases to be in even money, however I guess I don't have that high number here, he instapushed the river.

I guess my odds of winning this are close to 0% since he never bluffs(AF doesn't show anything for this situation, you have to look at AFq river, which was 80% after 50% AFq turn and 20% AFq flop, means he only valuebets rivers) and if he bluffs it happens once in 100 hands, so I guess I made a fishy mistake here on the river since it's clear fold.

Do you have expert stats? I have lost many hands because of basic stats IMO.

Originally posted by TheBrood
Do you have expert stats? I have lost many hands because of basic stats IMO.

Yes I am using PT3 popup with expert stats almost in every hand, you must use them if you want to be better player, since for example Avg. AF don't tell you really anything how the villain plays on various streets and even AF flop for example won't tell you how often he bluffs because he can just bet pot with a very strong hand and fold other hands.

You've been very nice to me commenting many of my hands, I won't be lazy to type what stats do I use if that helps :-) My stats for popup are:

3bet4/4bet, call pfr, coldcall pfr, call 3bet, att. to steal, fold steal to def., fold to steal sb/bb, def sb/bb, cbet all streets, fold to cbet all streets, call cbet all streets, raise cbet all streets, donk, fold to donk, af on streets, afq, bet, fold to bet, fold to raise, raise. check-raise. These stats are not many and they are very informative, if you are good at reading stats you can make pretty +EV moves, good laydowns or calldowns. I separated these stats into groups, highlighted with different colors and got used to them so I don't have any problems looking at needed stat in one second.

All the draws missed, he could still have two pair, to me it is easy call on the river.
I would shove turn, since he might still call with flushdraw and I don´t want to fold river is spade comes.

Originally posted by Kaitz20
All the draws missed, he could still have two pair, to me it is easy call on the river.
I would shove turn, since he might still call with flushdraw and I don´t want to fold river is spade comes.

The guy with 11 WTS would never ever 2 barrel with flush draw. Calling here is -EV vs this particular opponents and this line. You are too late commenting this, but thanks anyway :-)

Originally posted by Solomaextra
WTS worried me a lot, I knew I was beat on the river and he wasn't bluffing for sure there.

Why did you call then?

My line was no-brainer here everyone would play like this

Everyone?
IMO you played too passive post flop. You didn't define your hand and you didn't put your opponent under any pressure so he could easily be bluffing. But normally at 10NL with no reads on opponent it's better to fold when faced with AI.

All those stats you mentioned are helpful but still there's something missing. Those stats doesn't take bet sizes into account. For example: in this hand $0.20 flop bet would be treated same as $0.80 flop bet.

So you are faced with pot sizish donk bet on flop. What do you know about him? He donk bets x%, his AF is 2.3, ... Does that help you? I'd say no. The only information you need here is with what kind of hands he bets pot sizish here. Why? At micro limits players are generally bad, meaning they don't think much about their play. They are just playing some cards. They don't know anything about AF, donk betting, they don't even care about position or effective stack sizes. The only thing that matters are their cards and thats all. Bad players won't recall any previous action (they may recall results but not betting sizes or positions). Theirs decisions are predetermined. Because of that they will always, for example, bet strong with TP, bet weak with FD and check nuts. Therefore you really don't need stats at this level.

Back to the hand. I doubt he'd bet so much with set on this flop although it's possible. It's more like one pair hand or even FD. If you have no other information on your opponent then calling is good. Otherwise you could raise to about $2.5. On turn, as played you should push as Kaitz20 said.

Why is it no-brainer to call turn? What did you put him on? Were you already worried about his WTS? I wouldn't be. You only played 86 hands with him. Given his vp$ip that means you (or better to say your poker tracking software) saw him play the flop about 0.33 * 86 = 28 times. That's not much. But there's even more to come. Purely statistically you connected with flop in about 33% so he connected with flop in about 0.33 * 28 = 9. And that really is a small sample. His flop AFq is 20% meaning that he bets about 0.20 * 28 = 6 hands he played on flop. If he was a bit unlucky and flop helped him in only 7 occasions then that would mean that he bets almost every flop that helps him. As he is an aggressive player he might have feel confident that he's got better hand on turn so his WTS shouldn't be taken into consideration at all. It is more than likely that you are ahead on turn.

I need to be favourite in 25% of the cases to be in even money

You meant 33% didn't you?

I know I'm probably too late commenting this but I just wanted to say don't use stats no matter what and this thread seems perfect for this. OP asking should I be worried by his WTS and other guy saying you should be using expert stats. Come on, there's so much more to this game than just stats and expert stats. It seems to me that majority of posters here at NL5 to NL10 want to move up as soon as possible no matter what it takes. Alongside, they forget to play poker. But I can live with that, sooner or later they'll give me their money

Thank you for such a big comment, but you are wrong. Calling 2 streets and folding to river bet would be the best option here. I don't need to put any pressure or define my hand as I want him to continue bluffing since it's WA/WB. What you need is reading article "Pot control" which would explain you why you are wrong if you don't understand me(you need gold status tho). You also misread stats completely, read article about using stats. P.S. You were right about 33% :-)

Calling 2 streets and folding to river bet would be the best option here. I don't need to put any pressure or define my hand as I want him to continue bluffing since it's WA/WB.

I don't get this. So you are saying that you should let him bluff on flop and turn and when he bluffs again on river you should fold? That surely is +EV.
You went for pot control and lose all on river. Surely you need gold status for that

About articles, it's not only about reading them. But I'll go and read one about using stats. I hope it's available for bronze status.

I'd really appreciate if you can answer this questions. Why did you go for pot control on flop? Was it stats dependent? What did you put him on after his donk bet? Was it stats dependent? What did you put him on on the turn after his bet? Was it stats dependent? Did you consider shoving (why not)? Was it stats dependent? When did you start to be worried about his WTS?

I'd really appreciate if you can answer this questions. Why did you go for pot control on flop? Was it stats dependent? What did you put him on after his donk bet? Was it stats dependent? What did you put him on on the turn after his bet? Was it stats dependent? Did you consider shoving (why not)? Was it stats dependent? When did you start to be worried about his WTS?

Ok, I'll answer with pleasure.

1. AK on 26Kr flop is the situatiuon where no draws are possible, so I don't need to raise his bet since worst hands like KT, KJ, KQ, A6s would fold(his WTS only 11% so he would always fold them to a raise or would check-fold on the turn with KQ). Either I want him continue bluffing if he is, because bluffs fold to a raise. If I am behind(K6, 66, 22) then I play for small pot without all-in(actually in this hand it was all-in but it was my spewy play, on the river I should have folded).

2. It wasn't really stat dependant, this is standart play vs almost every opponent. I would maybe raise a maniac with very high WTS which doesn't fold any pair to get all-in by the river, but raising this flop is in the most cases very bad.

3. I put him on 22, 66, KQ, KJ, KT(seldom), K6s, K2s, 62s(seldom) because of the high VPIP or a bluff(very rare).

4. Yes it was stat dependant, his AFq on the flop and WTS was low so I don't put him on any 6 or any 2 or low king.

5. I put him on 22, 66, K2, K6, A6(very rare). Yes it was stat dependant, I explained it in N4 answer. I didn't concider shoving because if I was ahead I didn't want to scare any worst hands(he could probably fold even K2, K6 here) and if I was behind I was going for pot control(there is a big article about WA/WB and Pot controlling but I can't explain everything here it's too big.).

6. I started worrying about his WTS as soon as he donked the flop.

Thank you for answers.

I wasn't reading so long. ♦ I just couldn't find any article here at PS about using stats but I found very informative post in well known poker forum (I'm not sure if I'm allowed to post a link). The poster suggests that you need at least 50 hands sample for stats to become at least somewhat reliable. He also wrote that he wouldn't relay too much on stats until about 100 hands sample (and it seems like no one disagrees) . And that's all only for pre flop stats. Similarly you would like to have at least about 50 post flop hands sample for post flop stats to become at least somewhat reliable. That means you need at least around 50/vp$ip hands sample. But I would suggest 100/vp$ip hands sample. Still, I stay firmly behind what I stated in first post: at micro limits you shouldn't be too concerned with stats. From your answers it seems you relay heavily on stats.

1. The flop wasn't 26Kr. There are two spades so the possibility of FD exists. What range would you put him on if he would bet (a) $0.20, (b) $0.40, (c) $0.60 and how would you proceed? I doubt he is capable of folding KQ, KJ or KT if you raise. If he is not bluffing his pot sized bet would normally suggest that he likes what he has and is willing to play for stacks. Therefore I think that he might even re-raise you with some of those hands and put you in tough situation.

2. It wasn't stats dependent but if he would have higher WTS you'd raised him?

3. I believe, regardless of his pot sized bet, that you put him on too tight range mainly because of his WTS which really should play no role here. Don't be too stats oriented until you have big enough sample (at least 50 post flop hands played). I would add to his range also AsQs, AsJs QsJs, 7s6s, A2, 77 – JJ, Q6, K7, K8, K9.

4. Again, you relay on stats too much. With 86 hands sample it is possible that his flop AFq is 20% but he is betting every hand that helps him. Would you agree with that?

5. I would put him on wider range including AsQs, AsJs, QsJs, 7s6s, A2. IMO he's not folding K2, K6 if you shove. Would you expect him to bet K2, K6 on river if unimproved? How would you react?

6. You should never be worried about his WTS given only 86 hands sample.

I also had a history with him/reads. Believe me he would never bet with a draw, this opponent just never bets pot with any draw! Yes I rely heavily on stats+showdown hands he shows even if sample size is small, you can really have a picture of an opponent after playing just 4-5 hands with him seeing his showdown hand, here I didn';t need to full picture even because situation was so clear, sorry I am too lazy to answer your questions now, will do it later. Tomorrow there will be hand evaluation by hasenbraten at 16 GMT I think, I posted this hand there, come and discuss.

Originally posted by Solomaextra
I also had a history with him/reads. Believe me he would never bet with a draw, this opponent just never bets pot with any draw! Yes I rely heavily on stats+showdown hands he shows even if sample size is small, you can really have a picture of an opponent after playing just 4-5 hands with him seeing his showdown hand, here I didn';t need to full picture even because situation was so clear, sorry I am too lazy to answer your questions now, will do it later. Tomorrow there will be hand evaluation by hasenbraten at 16 GMT I think, I posted this hand there, come and discuss.

wait, you posted this hand where?

Hand Evaluation on 24.11.

Originally posted by Solomaextra
I also had a history with him/reads. Believe me he would never bet with a draw, this opponent just never bets pot with any draw! Yes I rely heavily on stats+showdown hands he shows even if sample size is small, you can really have a picture of an opponent after playing just 4-5 hands with him seeing his showdown hand, here I didn';t need to full picture even because situation was so clear, sorry I am too lazy to answer your questions now, will do it later. Tomorrow there will be hand evaluation by hasenbraten at 16 GMT I think, I posted this hand there, come and discuss.

Don't you think you should have posted all your history/reads with this player in your opening post?

I just assumed that your only "read" are his stats and that you rely on them blindly. So I tried to explain that you shouldn't rely solely and blindly on stats, especially with only 86 hands sample.

The real question with this hand should be: Do you really believe he is so tight that he is folding K2, K6 on turn if you shove? Why (you've got yet another read you didn't share ♦)? Is his range after river bet really so tight? If you call turn would he then shove river with K2, K6 if unimproved or would he just check it or perhaps even bet/fold?

I'm short on time this afternoon so I doubt I could make it to hand evaluation.

This guy is just very tight anb doesn't play trash, I'll make it simple, I put him either on much stronger hand on the turn or much weaker, that's why I call, river call was bad tho.