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AA set deep , bad river shove vs phone fish?

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PokerStars - $0.25 Ante $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 109.84 BB (VPIP: 27.95, PFR: 21.83, 3Bet Preflop: 9.64, Hands: 233)
CO: 91.56 BB (VPIP: 17.65, PFR: 7.56, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 119)
Hero (BTN): 361.08 BB
SB: 241.4 BB (VPIP: 42.42, PFR: 26.14, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 268)
BB: 276.24 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, 5 players post ante of 0.2 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has A♠ A♣

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB calls 1.6 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (7 BB, 3 players) A♥ Q♠ J♣
SB checks, BB bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB, SB calls 7 BB

Turn: (28 BB, 3 players) 7♠
SB checks, BB bets 27 BB, Hero calls 27 BB, fold

River: (82 BB, 2 players) 8♥
BB bets 78 BB, Hero raises to 263.08 BB, BB calls 162.04 BB and is all-in

got some idea that fish might have just called JJ-QQ preflop but dont think so now vey much... though they do sometimes.. though OTR even 9T beats me , not just KT... but anyway i dont expect 9T to potbet each street.. so i put him either on 2P or KT, and 2P=16combos ...AQ/AJ/JQ ... and KT = 16c so its like 50:50 .. maybe too marginal ..

Spoiler

Hero shows A♠ A♣ (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 85%, Flop 35%, Turn 23%)
BB shows T♥ K♦ (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 15%, Flop 65%, Turn 77%)
BB wins 554.08 BB


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey Fiftage588,

Preflop standard althouhg if there are weak players in the blinds there is no strong reason to stick to our 2x open raise sizing.

Flop smooth-call is fine.

Turn is likely fine to put in a small raise, followed with river value-bet.

As played river is likely just a smooth-call vs this large sizing. Even if we did think raising was good it would probably be better to min-raise rather than jam since our river raise can look super strong here. We need to make sure he calls with 2pair combos etc and not purely AK. I doubt he has JJ/QQ that frequently whatsoever.


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