Hello,
I have here a hand which I tried to analyse a bit deeper. It's not a hand that I played but from a fellow blogger. Here is the hand
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 10.5 BB (VPIP: 19.19, PFR: 7.07, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 100)
Hero (SB): 115.5 BB
BB: 51 BB (VPIP: 15.63, PFR: 13.54, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 97)
UTG: 189.5 BB (VPIP: 10.94, PFR: 3.13, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
UTG+1: 109 BB (VPIP: 20.48, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 8.82, Hands: 84)
MP: 103 BB (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 2.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
MP+1: 104 BB (VPIP: 20.15, PFR: 16.56, 3Bet Preflop: 7.80, Hands: 1,092)
MP+2: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.26, PFR: 19.35, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 317)
CO: 607.5 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ Q♣
fold, UTG+1 raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 3.5 BB, BTN calls 3.5 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 14.5 BB, BTN calls 7 BB and is all-in
Flop: (51 BB, 3 players) 8♠ 4♠ J♠
Hero bets 36.5 BB, CO calls 36.5 BB
Turn: (124 BB, 3 players) A♠
Hero bets 61 BB and is all-in, CO calls 61 BB
River: (246 BB, 3 players) K♥
Now the most important for me is the play on the flop. The player has Cbet here but I wasn't convinced it was the correct play so I made this analysis :
1/ Pré he squeezes which is okay but I would have made it bigger (24 BB) because OOP and lot's of calls before me.
2/ The CO is our main target here (BTN is SS and already AI), we only have 5 hands on him so we can't mark him as fish, rock, ...
This is why I gave him a standard Squeeze Call range : TT+, AQ+ ( I include AA/KK because these are also hands which villain may just call)
3/ the flop is suited. A situation which is very well known among us.
On this flop we have
Equity Winst Split
CO 39.41% 38.64% 0.77% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
SB 60.59% 59.82% 0.77% { QsQc }
So EV : 61% * 51 BB - 39 % * 51 BB = +11.22
But if we Cbet here we can expect the villain to only play on with : JJ+, AsKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc (25 hands)
against this range we loose a lot of equity :
Equity Winst Split
CO 64.17% 62.86% 1.31% { JJ+, AsKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKs, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc }
SB 35.83% 34.53% 1.31% { QsQc }
So EV will become :
Villain folds 21 of 46 hands if we cbet = 46 %
=>
EV = 46% * 51 BB + (54% * (36 % * 123 BB - 64 % * 123 BB)) = +4.57
So we lose a lot of EV by Cbetting according to me.
in part 2 I will discuss what happens if we check
