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25NL: bluffing the river

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CamboCat
Joined: 19.10.2012

PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: $7.23 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
CO: $25.35 (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (BTN): $25.00
SB: $17.04 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 7)
BB: $25.70 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 6)
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 27.62, PFR: 20.95, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 109)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A♠ J♠

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, fold, fold

Flop: ($1.85, 2 players) 7♥ 3♦ 3♠
CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.35, 2 players) 5♣
CO bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00

River: ($10.35, 2 players) 6♠
CO bets $7.00, Hero raises to $20.00 and is all-in, CO calls $13.00

Villain's range looks like an overpair to the board. Let's say {77+ and 33}. That's 40 combo's on the river.
Of course, he'll call with 77 and 33 (4 combo's). Maybe he just can't fold KK+ (9 combo's).
That leaves {88-QQ} or 27 out of 40 combo's that he will have a hard time calling, right?
He's out of position on a paired board facing a river shove.
Or do you think my river shove is way to optimistic?


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2 replies
EthereaL
Joined: 04.10.2008

Hey,

I doubt he is betting river with all overpairs. Not much point to bet 88-TT, what worse hands will call him? He might even be bluff catching river with his stronger overpairs so his betting range is FHs and bluffs.


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Hi cambo,

Remember what you are trying to do here: get villain to fold a strong range (in his eyes) made up of overpairs or better.

You beat most of his bluffs.

Then, think about what you rep. Very few combos of value.


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