Villain is 27/18, 141 hands, flop cbet could be bigger with intention to barrel depending on board. Anyhow smaller size should be fine, given his stats he is probably fishy and not paying atention. Turn is close between going for value or not. How to play the river? He bet it quite so I think it should take more time usually to consider bluffing missed flushdraw and we are perceived to have TT, 99, 8x a lot. But does a fishy player understand it or not.... Anyhow just considering our range we could bluffcatch TT, 99 so folding one of the weakest 9x should not be bad.
Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $54.69 (109.4 bb)
BB: $241.68 (483.4 bb)
UTG: $118.12 (236.2 bb)
MP: $60.18 (120.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $83.80 (167.6 bb)
BTN: $150.93 (301.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 9
8
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($3.75) J J
4 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2
Turn: ($7.75) 8
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.55, Hero calls $5.55
River: ($18.85) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9, Hero folds
Results:
Spoiler
$18.85 pot ($0.85 rake)
Final Board: J J 4 8 5
Hero mucked 9 8 and lost (-$9.05 net)
BTN mucked and won $18 ($8.95 net)
rivers. I think the EV of betting and checking on turn is very similar the looser his range and calling range the better it becomes to bet. Villain still has quite a lot of Jx in his range and betting the turn with this handstrenght is imo a bit loose against 27/18 player. If he would be 50/10 then it would be pretty easy vbet. Bluffcatching the river here vs. his valuelooking betsize.... I think it would be borderline. We still have plenty of better hands in our range and villain's turn bet looks strong and river bet looks like valuebet. So his betsizes make sense and when that happens by a fish it's like 100% value true my experience. If he would have bet 2dollars on turn and then forexample pot betted the river I would be much more happy to call.