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Can we make a call here ?

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IPoker, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
SB is a LAGish reg but not a lot of history - only 177 hands and stats 36/43/8 But mostly aggressive in late position, BB is 48/8 fish
They both fold about 50% to cbet and reg got W$SD 77% (witch is not much info with 177 hands).
2 questions : Can we cbet with our BD equity and can we call the river couse nothing we can beat but bluff ?

SB: $203.95 (204 bb)
BB: $110.98 (111 bb)
Hero (CO): $101 (101 bb)
BTN: $219.44 (219.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5 6
Hero raises to $3, BTN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9) J 3 A (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9) 4 (3 players)
SB bets $6.30, BB folds, Hero raises to $22.32, SB calls $16.02

River: ($53.64) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $42.91, SB raises to $177, Hero ?


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2 replies
tukioppilas62
Joined: 01.01.2011

I think we can cbet, the reg is probably on a very wide range including all small pocketpairs (expects the fish to come along pre a lot so getting a good price to flat wide), and the fish has a super wide range too. The flop hit's you best and cbetting 1/2 pot should be okay imo.

I'm not sure about your turn raise, u just rep super thin like A4 and 44. If your plan is to bluff on the river a lot u are not going to get much credit and we'll get bluffcatched a lot and villain's range doesn't include a lot of draws usually imo. (expecting him to be 3betting suited connector and broadway hearts most of the time). All in all it means we put a lot of money in with a draw in a situation where our FE is low which is not good.

On the river it's quite hard to find enough hands he calls ur huge vbet. I think it's a check back and I would expect to lose most of the time against Aj, 33, 44, or a higher flush. Some of the time we win against AQ or AJ but usually ppl. 3bet those hands so what can we target with our valuebet?


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

I probably just flat turn by default. We rep thin as tukioppilas62 mentions, but tbh I don't think this is a big issue. The line looks pretty strong regardless + we have decent equity.

I don't have huge problems with river play either. It can be a bit smaller and we should probably be bet/folding, I doubt he is jamming worse for value.


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