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JQs overcards and FD: shove or fold?

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Full Tilt - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 141 BB
BB: 53 BB (VPIP: 20.51, PFR: 15.58, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 80)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
MP: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 30.51, PFR: 22.03, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 60)
CO: 100.5 BB
BTN: 216 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 17)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♥ Q♥

fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, BB calls 5 BB, CO calls 4 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 3 players) 7♥ 9♥ 2♣
Hero bets 12 BB, fold, CO raises to 30 BB Hero ???

Villain is unknown. After he raises my flop C-bet i put his range on 77-QQ, T8, T9, J9, JT, JK, JA, Q9, K9, A9, AQ, AK or any two hearts in the shape of suited connectors. I don't expect him to have KK or AA as he would have 4-betted them preflop, so the hands that dominate me are 77, 99 or Kx/Ax of hearts. I think I have quite a bit of fold equity when I shove, I'm never drawing dead and he could very well call with hands like 9Ao, 9Ko, 9Qo, TT, 88 or T8.

Without using equilab or any similar program, I estimate that a shove is the right thing to do here.

Correct thinking?


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4 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I think the whole thought process is wrong. What hand that dominates you will fold? Do youreally think he will go crazy with TP on this board?


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KKNgroup
Joined: 23.02.2011

Generaly his flop reraise indicate such range:
99,77,22,AhKh,Th8h
So You have just 29% against that range, so correct move would be fold.
I did not put top pair and overpair in his range, as it is not very possible if we see his pre flop and flop play.


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Originally posted by KKNgroup
Generaly his flop reraise indicate such range:
99,77,22,AhKh,Th8h
So You have just 29% against that range, so correct move would be fold.
I did not put top pair and overpair in his range, as it is not very possible if we see his pre flop and flop play.

Villain is unknown. If I would know him to be a nit a range of 99, 77, 22, AhKh and Th8h would be realistic. I estimate the average player on NL2 to raise here with a slightly wider range however, I would at least add TT, JJ to it. Maybe some air, or worse hands than mine. I have no history with him after all and he might very well be a fish. When you implement a little wider range and add a little fold equity I'd get here by shoving I believe this move would be more or less ~EV, and only +EV against a very loose player.

I guess i was trying to avoid diffucult decisions on turn and river here by just shoving.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Do not use adding "air"as an excuse ... :)


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