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KJo mega multiway pot

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Freddo993
Joined: 12.01.2013

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $3.08 (154 bb)
Hero (BB): $3.26 (163 bb)
UTG: $1.60 (80 bb)
MP: $2.10 (105 bb)
CO: $4.28 (214 bb)
BTN: $0.66 (33 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J K
UTG raises to $0.04, MP calls $0.04, CO calls $0.04, BTN calls $0.04, SB folds, Hero calls $0.02

Flop: ($0.21) K 9 J (5 players)
Hero bets $0.15, UTG calls $0.15, MP calls $0.15, CO folds, BTN raises to $0.62 and is all-in, Hero folds, UTG calls $0.47, MP calls $0.47

Turn: ($2.22) J (3 players, 1 is all-in)
UTG checks, MP bets $1.44, UTG calls $0.94

River: ($4.10) 7 (3 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$4.10 pot ($0.22 rake)
Final Board: K 9 J J 7
UTG showed A T and lost (-$1.60 net)
MP showed Q K and won $3.88 ($2.28 net)
BTN mucked K 9 and lost (-$0.66 net)

from my position
1st opponent unknown - 2nd opponent 33/10 444hands - 3rd opponent 16/10 268hands - 4th opponent 36/23 109hands

so, this is a pretty sick spot to me
On preflop I'm calling for pot odds since I'm getting 9,50 to 1
On the flop I make top 2 pair and I decide to lead out to thin the field, but I instantly get raised and reraised by these guys and decide to give up my hand
i was putting them on some really sick ranges like QT T8 or 99s seen the super strong action on flop, apparently I was wrong big time.

What do you guys think about that fold?


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3 replies

Its NL2 and they are not nits.
You win here about 50% of the time, so clearly call.


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Freddo993
Joined: 12.01.2013

yeah I know that ... but I dont know i mean those guys were raising and reraising what's the chance to bust them with those crappy hands on board?


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metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

At nl2 I would probably never fold top 2 pair, unless I have over 1k hands on someone and they have ridiculously low flop raise stat like under 5%. Even then it would be close.

Also the way this hand plays out should give you a lot of clues about their possible hands.

UTG does not raise flop. This makes it very unlikely he has a set. Additionally you have KJ so there is only 1 combination of KK (KcKd) and 1 of JJ (JhJd) possible. But more importantly, he won't want to give away a free card with so many straight draws likely in play. Same with QT, we should expect to see a raise here, because he will want to get value, not chop or even lose to higher turned/rivered straight. For this reason, I expect UTG/MP to have mostly 1 pair + straight draw type hands eg. KQ

BTN moves all in but we should not be scared of this at all. He is a fish playing a tiny stack. He would have gone all in preflop w KK,JJ. He could well have QT, but he only has 60c, so we don't lose much if he does and still have full house outs anyway.

Even if all of the players go all in, we have very good equity. I think its unlikely, but not impossible for UTG/MP to have QTs, so I added 2 of 4 combinations of it to their range. I don't think they will play QTo from UTG or MP unless they're pretty bad.

Equity Win Tie
MP2 16.52% 12.49% 4.03% AJs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, QdTd, QhTh, AJo, KQo
MP3 16.52% 12.49% 4.03% AJs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, QdTd, QhTh, AJo, KQo
BU 25.42% 21.30% 4.11% TT-99, AJs, K8s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T8s+, AJo, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
BB 41.55% 40.03% 1.52% KsJc

Yes its less than 50%, but 41% in a 4 way all in is actually fantastic. More likely what actually happens is if you move all in, either UTG and MP both fold, or one of them does and you're way ahead of them for a large pot, plus decent shot of winning side pot vs BU as you mostly have him beat.


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