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JQ river bet?

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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

partypoker - $0.04 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 89 BB (VPIP: 24.40, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 4.11, Hands: 170)
Hero (SB): 131 BB
BB: 107.25 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 8)
UTG: 93 BB (VPIP: 30.50, PFR: 12.74, 3Bet Preflop: 2.88, Hands: 264)
MP: 129 BB (VPIP: 15.08, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 129)
CO: 148.25 BB (VPIP: 17.01, PFR: 12.33, 3Bet Preflop: 3.64, Hands: 149)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♥ Q♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 3♣ 9♥ Q♥
Hero bets 2.75 BB, BB calls 2.75 BB

Turn: (11.5 BB, 2 players) T♦
Hero bets 5.5 BB, BB calls 5.5 BB

River: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero checks, BB bets 21.5 BB, Hero calls 21.5 BB

Spoiler

BB shows K♣ J♠ (Straight, King High)
(Pre 73%, Flop 26%, Turn 97%)
Hero mucks J♥ Q♦ (Straight, Queen High)
(Pre 27%, Flop 74%, Turn 3%)
BB wins 62.25 BB

do I have value on river? I guess I have vs fishier player, but what about reg?
also, is cc higher EV, since he can turn hands into bluff, or bluff busted draws?

with nut straight, would you rather c/shove or direct shove and expect that average player is bad enough to call straights?


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2 replies
metza
Joined: 28.01.2012

Bet bigger flop and turn.

Bet river, most people will not turn 1p hands into bluff here.

w KJ I would xr turn and jam river.


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mlatasrb
Joined: 01.04.2012

Bet river, most people will not turn 1p hands into bluff here.

My question was more if I have value on river, meaning that I will get called >50% by weaker hands (for that i need him to call plenty of 2 pair, Qx hands on this ugly board).


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